Post by
RagingBull3 on Jan 03, 2021 5:52pm
"Crazy $$$$$ Dividends".....
Everyone view is different. Everyone's Yield will be different depending on what price they get in. Most of my shares were yielding ~16%. I went HEAVY. The CASH rolling in my view was just CRAZY.
Risk wise.... These were Preferreds.... "fixed income"..... so the only major risk was bankruptcy, IMHO. I went over what I thought were the risk many many times over several post. So, basically RISK is LOW, IMHO, unless oil prices remains at these levels for few more years.............
I think the Company claims that they think they will be CASH FLOW POSITIVE at $36 WTI for 2021 and down to $33 by 2023. So paying the Dividend not a problem. But Big Question is, is the company PROFITABLE at these oil prices? I have the feeling higher oil prices are needed.....we are getting there.
Yes, now the yields on some of the Preferreds are not so "crazy" any more. But you have to remember where these Preferreds "reset" when you think about their Yields. Husky4000 points out G's yields... But if you notice G's share price continues to climb. One of the reason for this is the fact that it reset when rates were rock bottom. So, while other shares Yields currently seem much higher, when they reset, they will probably be much lower. If you notice the C's for example. Notice how high the Yield on it is, yet for the most part it's share price is Lower than the E's and G's. The same thing applies when comparing other Preferreds of other companies.
Common Shares should demand HIGHER yields than Preferreds, as they have more risk and can be suppended, reduced, increased any time.
Another "Crazy" factor that Husky Preferreds has/had going for them was a possible $25/share. This likelyhood has now greatly been reduced.... HSE Preferred I believe will be converted to CVE Preferreds. There maybe a faint hope of a class action lawsuit, but I wouldn't bet all my marbles on it. I played it for the LONG RUN.
With the $25/share factor now basically removed.... YES, HSE Preferred Yield are no longer TOP DOG. There are still high, but no longer ranking as some of the highest yields out there.... but you have to remember also, that these are Preferreds of now a much larger company, of a sector that seems to be turning the corner with oil prices heading higher.
So.... What's "crazy"..... In a near ZERO rate environment, what Yield do you consider Crazy, for a "fixed income" investment and it's related risk?
I'm now comparing Yield/Risk with other companies preferreds. I will have to think twice about common shares as I think Dividend Cuts are still in store for many companies.
Again, I felt like my rights were taken away from me by Husky/Cenovus.....so that leaving a bad taste in my mouth. Without the likelyhood of $25/share or a good Premium over other Preferreds.....I'm letting my feelings get the better of me and I'm not in a hurry to buy back and in fact......looking around.
I bought Husky, Not Cenovus. I bought Preferreds that had Terms.
Just about all the Preferreds across the Market heading higher. I can ride another Preferred up. I may not get the Reward(Yield)/Risk profile of HSE/CVE but my feelings will feel better. I know, it's BAD to let your feelings dictate your investment decisions.... But Hey, I let my Tin Foil Hat do it.
The shares still have not been converted yet as I understand. I'll let that play out first.
Covid-19 getting pretty bad also....... But the FED is all Powerful.
All just my opinion.