Interfor Corp T.IFP

Weyerhaeuser $60 takeover scenario

[Hanalyst727]

IFP isn't big financially. WY could offer C$60/shr all-shares and it would only amount to US$3.2B in shares. ( And thats all-diluted  68.2MM : 65.9 MM shares + 2.26 MM in: options + DSU+ PSU+ SAR) 

WY has a market cap of US$ 25 B, so thats only 13% of its shares outstanding they need to issue to wrap this up. Peanuts for them.

In 2020 WY earned US$2.2 B in adjusted EBITDA
IFP earned C$ 248 MM in adj EBITDA in Q4, annualized in USD this is US$750 MM/yr

So WY get an instant 35% jolt to EBITDA for issuing only 13% of their shares out (+20% EBITDA/share)  Plus get the Hamlin Mill development as a bonus.

I say it again: big first mover advantage to making a offer for IFP.
 

[dosperros]

Directionally yes, but WY wouldn't work as being a timber REIT ties their hands.  It would also rule out Rayonier, Potlatch, etc. for the same reason -- they must have 75%+ of asset value in land.  I recall they divested a lot of mills when they switched over to this status, so they're heavily invested in it. I hadn't looked at the details until now, and it's a pretty

[JohnnyTSX]

Unless we're talking a private equity dark horse, Canfor appears to be one of the few that could theoretically pull it off if they wanted - but a $30 Jim Pattison stink bid doesn't really excite me much...