May 18, 2021
Forest Products
US housing starts: Light on starts, but full steam ahead on permits
Impact
Slightly negative: April housing data was below expectations – The US Census Bureau released new residential construction statistics for April. Housing starts were below expectations at 1,569k SAAR vs. consensus at 1,700k SAAR, while housing permits were largely in line with expectations at 1,760k SAAR (vs. 1,750k consensus). We suspect the industry is running into constraints of how much work it can take on given building material and labor shortages. Excluding the seasonal adjustment, housing starts were flat m/m. Single-family starts of 1,087k were down 13.4% m/m while multi-family starts of 470k were up 4.0% m/m. Homebuilder confidence peaked at 90 in November, however still remains strong at 83, amid record high building material prices as the spring building season is in full swing.
Highlights
April US housing starts of 1,569k (SAAR) were below consensus at 1,700k SAAR – Total starts were up 67.3% y/y and down 9.5% m/m from the revised March figure of 1,733k (revised -6k from 1,739k SAAR). On a regional basis, the South represented 51% of total starts vs. 25% in the West, 12% in the Midwest and 11% in the Northeast. On a y/y basis, starts in the South were up 41.3% y/y, while the West was up 119.8% y/y. The Midwest was up 40.9% y/y, while the Northeast was up 244.0% y/y. For April, single- family starts represented 69.3% of total starts (vs. 71.8% in 2020). The greater proportion of single- family new residential construction is significant since single-family housing starts typically consume 3x the amount of wood products vs. multi-family starts.