Interfor Corp T.IFP

When to load up?

[SleepingGiant64]

So the lumber curve is $960 trailing to $800 by November. Q1 avg was around $1250.
CIBC's forecasts for IFP have Random Lengths Composite avg price this year at $688 USD. With that, they peg IFP's EPS at almost $13 and free cash flow yield at 25%. The company still has zero debt and net cash, plus duties on hold.

There is some talk about deck demand cooling and whatnot, but whatever. Even next year they model $514 lumber and $5 EPS. That would still only a P/E of 6.6 on a net cash company. I'm convinced home building will boom for a decade at least.

Is it the time to go big or cane I wait until $25-30? I have a good-sized position already.

[Frost19]

I'm wondering the same thing. "When to load up?" My thoughts.  Lumber benchmark has been excellent in Q1 but is declining slowly and will probably continue to decline into summer. The market doesn't care about last quarter, only next quarter and the ones after that. Last summer it dropped to ~500 lows. I don't know if it will this year but that would be half of where

[cfliesser]

I think the biggest thing is that supply chain issues are starting to improve, so supply increases, and lumber futures dropping. But I do not think they will decline quite as much as before, likely higher baseline between 600 and 800. These stocks will suffer untill futures level out then Q1 release should pump it back up. I am hoping that 800$ is the new baseline... but will see...

[SleepingGiant64]

Great thoughts. I see what everyone else sees, lumber prices falling and people worried about US mortgage rates at 5% but home builder margins are still great. I don't think they really slow down on building much and I think Americans continue to renovate. The US housing stock is OLD and needs work. Anyway, anyone who owns this stock already knows the bull case. What I'm thinking about