Interfor Corp T.IFP

Assets priced at 50% discount

[lifeisgood1010]

I may be wrong and don't want to argue but i did the recount and still get 2,955,529.

In any event, these are incredibile numbers.

As for EPS, i would be very surprised if your $7 come true.

Yahoo just bump there analysts forcast from $4.44 to $5.39

And the Wall Street Journal bump theirs from$4.47 to $5.59.

Are they gonna hike them again?I don't have the answer but with all of the shipping 
problems they had in Q1 anything above $5 would be very good.

If you take friday's market cap and substract the $1,024,000,000 they paid for the 3 acquisitions in 2021, we are left with $773 million or $13.80/ shares for all of their other mills.

The 3 acquisitions cost came in at an average of $563,000 per MBF

That means that at friday's close the market is valuating the other assets at $251,000,not even 
half the price paid For West Rock,Gp and EACOM.

This is one of the craziest valuation i have seen in many years

EPS Trend	Current Qtr. (Mar 2022)	Next Qtr. (Jun 2022)	Current Year (2022)	Next Year (2023)
Current Estimate	5.39	3.64	11.54	5.28
7 Days Ago	4.44	3.48	10.84	5
30 Days Ago	4.44	3.48	10.84	5
60 Days Ago	4.29	3.32	10.21	4.91
90 Days Ago	0.98	1.62	5.98	4

[sunshine7]

forward markets pricing in a recession?

[SleepingGiant64]

For earnings. There are only four analysts that track the stock. Ray Jay and Scotia have run their Q1 previews, CIBC and TD haven't. Expect that to change in the next week or two. Those Q1 estimates are running from the decks at the start of the year that had lumber prices at $800. Ray Jay is at $6.59 and Scotia $6.46. The Smart Estimate from Refinitiv is $7.04. Now transportation issues

[lifeisgood1010]

Good morning SleepingGiant64, Indeed, we're on the same team and see the unbelievable under valuation of these assets. I see at least 2 reason why IFP management is buying their shares so aggressively. 1- Valuation.Like i said previously, they paid $563,000/ MBF for the 3 acquisitions in 2022 leaving all other assets at $251,000.The last acquisition that WFG did was done at $1,213

[SleepingGiant64]

Cheers brother, I hope this goes the way be both expect. Another thing I was thinking: The latest estimates surely don't include all the share buys. So you can add another 5-8% to EPS based on that alone. Also, good to see a strong start to the week for lumber. Back to $1000. I'll be sure to add any IFP reserach notes I see here because I'm trying to figure out the math. What do you

[lifeisgood1010]

Yeap, 1.2BCF is right. De Quincy at full capacity is 200 MBF and EACOM is about 975 MBF. Thanks for you comments and info. I don't have any link or knowledge of cash price but from what i can read on the Madison,Random lenght and the likes, cash price is higher then the future contracts on the LME. I think they will continue to be very volatile but anything higher than $700 is a very good

[dosperros]

Certainly support Madisons if you can. Barring that here's my go to site with deep detail on cuirrent and historic cash market prices. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/weekly-prices

[dosperros]

I'd back of napkined it on cash pricing and the 5.5 operational weeks and come out with about $90M of incremental EACOM EBITDA for Q1.  That's about 1/5 the deal price.  Kelso must be LIVID. Like George Sr says of Harry Winkler's Barry character in Arrested Development "I have the worst @*$!ing attornties". but swap in advisors.

[lifeisgood1010]

Hi Dos, nice to have your high valued comments again. Like you, i never understood the low price that Kelso was willing to sell Eacom. From the IFP presentation, EACOM ebitda was $475m in 2021.They wrote that the mid cycle would be $90m.If the fundamentals do remain robust, this $90m may far away from reality. In any event, EACOM, will be paid of in less then a year.Truly amazing. Hope you can

[JohnnyTSX]

Regarding EACOM, I think they got it for a deal because those mills required a lot of capital. I don't think they've had much modernization these past several years.

[dosperros]

Capex is overdone.  Their cash breakeven is ballpark identical to the RYAM mills that went to GFP.  You can also use RFP as a proxy but RFP's Thunder Bay outfit at 330MMFBM is a behemouth so that gives them a few bucks better costs. I'd calc'd it before and recall it was maybe $40 or $50 pe mfbm higher all-in costs that the IFP mothership.  Big at $500 wood but that'

[dosperros]

I should add these are my numbers too.  I had to add em twice as my eyes popped out.  It's also north of 4.9M total for Q1.