illumin Holdings Inc T.ILLM

Remember this: How do they get 15-20% in 2022 forecast

[truthis0utther3]

Unlike the perma bulls on this board, hold me to what I write!

There are two scenarios where they are able to end the year with revenue growth at an overall 15-20% or more (they are not mutually exclusive).

Scenario 1 (biggest factor): They purchase revenue by acquisition, meaning, they use some of their war chest to buy a company or two which artificially increases revenue.

Scenario 2: They spend way more on sales and marketing to organically buy revenue (already in progress) which may increase revenue but will increase costs at likely a similar clip.

This company is organically DEAD. The longer time goes on the stock price will be approaching their net cash minus the discount rate (which is now very high).

What should they do? Sell the company for whatever they can get and issue a special dividend for their cash. There is very little chance they are going to be recovering.

Why? Because management cashed out and checked out long ago. Nothing has changed in this regard.

[Capharnaum]

Just look at TTD, in Q4, they increased revenues to $396M from $320M and their operating expenses increased from $213M to $420M. So, my guess is that you think TTD is DEAD too? TTD's market cap is 24x revenues (that's net of cash) compared to AT which is Lastly, your "perma" bull comment is laughable. AT's pricing is currently super bearish, so unless someone is bearish

[truthis0utther3]

Thank you for the respectful response! I am very well familiar with growth at a reasonable price. The problem is when growth is non existent. TTD is surely overpriced but it is still considered by investors as a growth stock given they are growing revenues at a nice clip and they are best in class. AT has much more seasonality than TTD does and Q4 is supposed to be a monster quarter relatively

[Capharnaum]

TTD grew revenue by increasing costs, yet you criticize AT's plans when they expect the same. In the end, AT is still: 17x cheaper than TTD based on the revenue multiple (37x cheaper if you exclude cash from market cap). 26x cheaper based on EPS. 16x cheaper based on EBITDA (37x cheaper excluding cash from market cap) That's using full year revenues/earnings.

[truthis0utther3]

TTD is not the right comparable to AT even though they are both DSPs. TTD is a juggernaut and has consistently shown they are able to make investments and grow revenues and have EBITDA follow on. Tal is not Jeff Green. Is TTD expensive? YES! I do not own it but you can make a case that they are best in class. In terms of AT, they would be cheap if they could deliver on something. The problem is

[Capharnaum]

That's all according to you. If they didn't have any credibility, you wouldn't see so many analysts in the conference call.