illumin Holdings Inc T.ILLM

Time to pounce for long term

[Sellthedream2]

After cash is considered, AT is trading well below the pandemic low of .74 cents in March 2020. At these levels I think you even put the baby's milk money into it! lol

[Torontojay]

  Its absolutely crazy! The business is valued at around $25 m and Illumin generated $35.7m in the last 12 months! Ad revenues will likely suffer over the next several quarters but the cash position alone will weather the storm and take the company to new heights when inflation is back under control.  You are buying today for the future even if we are heading for a recession. 

[pacer217]

I wish I could afford tp buy more than the400 I got today; too stubborn to sell another loser to average down here. The short count is almost at zero now. Lowest in many months. I remember Tal buying a significan amount of shares several months ago. ( at $2.90 - $3.20, I believe.)Stil has them . Quarter out this Thursday Morning.  Certain to be best yet.. maybe $2,25 / by Friday?

[Steamo]

How do you get 25mm value on the business?  Market cap is still over 100mm.

[Torontojay]

  You subtract excess cash not needed to run the business. The business on a cash free debt free basis is valued between $25m-30m depending on the share price and current cash and debt on hand. 

[Sellthedream2]

Whether I'm right or wrong I don't know but this is the reason I'm buying shares again for the long term. Through no fault of anyone, if people don't actually take a closer look they will not know that AT has 92 million in cash on hand. I believe in this crazy market turmoil it's being overlooked as there is obviously tons of companies that are down that people are looking at

[truthis0utther3]

All correct so why is there no interest anymore? Maybe you can try and explain why the stock is down almost 95% from it's highs and no reflexive move higher.  I'll help you out.. it was all momentum pushing it higher and that is gone for the foreseeable future. On a cashflow basis I am willing to bet they are negative this quarter. Let's see!

[Torontojay]

Sure, the stock never deserved to be trading that high. Markets can swing both ways. It could swing beyond euphoric levels when everyone's making money and also swing to complete capitulation when liquidity is drying up.  Nobody wants to own advertising stocks when the economy is potentially entering a recession! 

[truthis0utther3]

So why would anyone want to own an ad stock that isn't growing and has proven to have poor leadership when they could buy a stock that is either growing fast, pays a dividend, or a fixed income certificate that pays 5%... Seems like a very high hurdle for stocks like AT.. my guess is its dead money for years going forward.

[Torontojay]

It doesn't have to grow to be worth more than its trading at. It's priced for negative growth as we speak.  In 2021 it generated $14m in free cash and todays the business is valued at less than $30m! That's why.  I like value and I'm not willing to pay for frothy growth expectations like The Trade Desk to justify its share price.  Acuityads could remain

[truthis0utther3]

The market is telling you that they are in negative growth. Google, TTD have all told you that ad spend is down signifcantly and have lowered guidance for Q4. Last year, while AT was complaining about supply chains TTD found a way to grow like never before and even they are telling you - the ones that find growth no matter what - that they see a slowdown in ad spend. My guess is that AT's ad

[Torontojay]

Listen to the conference call. Tal reiterated that they will deliver growth in Q3 with over a months worth of visibility. I believe they will exceed last year but will undoubtedly mention a difficult advertising environment.  They will also likely guide to lower than 20-25% y/y growth they talked about earlier in the year. 

[truthis0utther3]

I'm sorry, I do not trust Tal as far as I can throw him and for good reason. Apparently those that are selling don't trust him either. By the way, when making the cash on hand calculations, everybody is using the numners from Q2 but if they have been buying back stock since then at higher levels that cash level should be discounted downwards.