Ivanhoe Mines Ltd T.IVN

New Press Release

[chintzy]

The existing Phase 1 and 2 concentrators also will be de-bottlenecked and are expected to be operating at a combined throughput of 9.2 million tonnes of ore per year by the second quarter of 2023, which will increase Kamoa-Kakula's annual copper production to more than 450,000 tonnes. This production rate will rank Kamoa Copper as the world's fourth-largest copper producer.

That is a rate of a billion lbs./annum that we are on the verge of. We should produce ~900 million lbs. in 2023. Say we clear 3.25/lb. at 4.50 Cu and a total cash cost of 1.25, our %40 cut should be ~1.4 billion CAD. And if most or all of that is tax-free until exploration and development costs are recouped then that is a lot of cash going into IVN coffers next year. 4.50 Cu is likely to be conservative.

If we keep $1.2 billion that is a $15 SP at a 15x multiple then add say $5 for all of the other projects to plausibly get to $20 next year.

2024 will be a better  year with a billion lbs. produced + Phase 3, Kipushi, Platreef, and the smelter coming onstream. Possibly paying %35 tax at this stage though.

2025 will be blockbuster as they produce ~1.3 billion lbs. at lower cost due to the smelter and Kipushi and Platreef adding to FCF.

What if GS Jeff Currie’s forecast of $15K/tonne (6.81/lb.) arrives? FCF of ~2.5 billion CAD (after %35 tax) and $30/share at a 15x multiple.

This is the copper that is free of impurities and powered by abundant, cheap, clean hydro.

Plus whatever is going on at WF.

What does a company do with this level of free cash flow of $2.5 billion/year starting in 2025 and rising every year thereafter? Dividends would further support the SP.

Hold for 3 years from now, there’s a strong chance the SP will be in the $30s.

[up2005]

The production numbers are mind-blowing. When ever you mention 1 billion lbs we are in the elite group of miners. I had a long hold target of $ 20.00+ Which is now very possible.

[gisellekronk]

"  I had a long hold target of $ 20.00+ Which is now very possible. " i agree , and higher longer term , i just hope we are not taken out around the $ 15.00 price 

[Starsearcher80]

I would agree that a target of $20.00 is now easily acheivable.  But as you note, the possibility of a buyout is absolutely out there.  Personally, I would consider the window for this to have started about 3 months ago, through to the next 3 months.  The real question in my mind is whether IVN would accept such an offer.  While it would give a massive boost to the share price,

[Tweedlede]

I really hope not. The undeveloped properties and potential new DRC discoveries allow for much more upside in the medium term. My ultimate goal is to see this turn into a dividend payer which is probably over a decade away.

[cashtango00]

This buyout target has been a topic discussed many times.  There is 0 percent chance of a hostile bid coming in.  Chinese want the copper locked up, not cash for their shares.  Chinese+ RF hold the majority and therefore control the company.  No buyout coming

[masterthink]

BUYOUT by DRC GOVERMENT AT $4.00 ... With a pistol on the occiput....wawawa lol lol !!

[Starsearcher80]

I understand what you're saying and for the many years that I've followed this stock, I wouldn't disagree.  At some point however, with RF at 72 years old now, he will want to change course.  His life has been spent building, and he's done an excellent job here seeing this through to fruition.  No, it's not quite done yet, but certainly on the horizon, and

[cashtango00]

Guys like RF can't stop.  Anyone who has ever spent time with him will tell you that.  He will die one day in his office or at home working on something.  This version of IVN is the crown jewel of a very impressive mining career and he will keep driving it for the forseeable future.  Whats he going to do, sell out and roll around in cash?  There is so much he can do

[Starsearcher80]

Yes, this is far beyond work for RF, and is a true passion.  I'm truly amazed and impressed that he's had the abillity to navigate his way through some very difficult political situations, particularly about  a decade ago when you just had to wonder if this was all going to blow up in his face.  He not only survived, but is now at the centre of what will truly be a world