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Vitamins, mineral and supplements (VMS) is typically not economically sensitive. Historically JWEL had been able to grow through past recessions. Recent VMS sales data in the cross-border eCommerce (CBEC) channel (JWEL's main sales channel in China) also supports this. Except for the months following major shopping/promotional events, there has been no meaningful sales decline in China's CBEC channel since June 2022. We would expect JWEL's China exposure to increase over time, as this is one of the company's key growth pillars – we are modeling 30%/27% China sales growth in 2024/2025 given the strong industry-wide growth (i.e., ~11% CAGR pre-pandemic according to Euromonitor) and JWEL's market share growth (through channel and product expansion). JWEL is in a partnership with DCP Capital, a leading PE firm in China with strong market knowledge and relationships. We believe this should also lower JWEL's risk in the country.
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