Post by
insideoutside on Feb 28, 2018 5:25pm
BMO Presentation
Paul sounded very low energy as if he has aged 25-30 yrs in the last 12mo. Mining is difficult, even more so when you make a terrible aquisition like TN.
Overall not a lot of new info. Hollister recovery at 80% is still poor. Unbelievably they expect no improvement until "mid year". I can only conclude they still have no handle on this issue. They originally promised to have the mill optimized in Q2 of 2017. I can only expect more capital destruction as they grasp for a solution to effectively handle FC and Hollister ore with the same plant. Ultimately the answer might be an additional mill but no one wants to discuss that when the treasury is in bad shape.
Second, the shift of focus to FC open pit deeply concerns me. It is likely FC underground was high graded in 2017 in a failed attempt to meet guidance. And Hollister drill results are probably below expectations. So far the open pit economics look very marginal. And they have no experience operating an open pit mine. A partner will extract a pound of flesh since Huet is negociating from a position of weakness rather than strength. Makes me wonder if this will turn into another write off like TN.. Once again the poor financial situation they have gotten themselves into will limit their future options.
I expect a rerating of the stock when financials are released in March to account for balance sheet weakness exasperated by the forward selling (hedging) program which has gone largely unnoticed by the market, but will soon bite them in the a$$ now that Gold is above 1300.
I anticipate a new weekly average share price of 1.00USD 1.30 CAD beginning right after earnings gap down and would consider a long postion if it drops an additional 10-20% (ie 0.80 to 0.90 USD) but only as a swing trade. Postion traders with a buy on dip and hold long term strategy will continue to get hit by a train and left for dead.
On a positive note, Paul was more honest than past calls admiting poor life of mine,and too much previous emphasis on production growth. Humility was the appropriate response after such a horrible year.
IO.
Comment by
Highwave on Feb 28, 2018 6:22pm
I meant new heap leach program at FC. Was pissed reading that previous post. Typed to fast.
Comment by
Highwave on Feb 28, 2018 10:19pm
More fear mongering from you. We know what they wrote in Q3 since it is in the quarterly. We will find out Q4. If they did do assnother collar i bet it will be at a higher price. Going forward they should be unhedged. The Gold price is a coiled spring.
Comment by
Highwave on Mar 01, 2018 1:43am
The fact is those forwards already happened in FY 2017. Go away shorty. It looks like the gold collar took its place for Q1.