Post by
Carbonbull on Sep 02, 2023 9:15am
my projections for year end metrics and 2024 drilling
Has been a while since i updated my internal model , plain disclosure i am very long this stock and may have cognitive bias because of my position so please do your own calculations and be very aware that the oil foward curve is probably one of the most volatile curves in the market.
2023 average production will be north of 4500 BOED based on current type curves not NSI assumed curves.
2023 exit production will be north of 6000 BOED same assumptions.
Based on above there will be enough internal fund flow to drill 15 wells in 2024.
Resulting in average daily production of approximately 8000 BOED
at current strip prices and netback will result in CF of approx $150 million
two other points 1) EUR should be revised up
2) should be a large reserve adjustment based on Tzone wells
Price prediction if OIL holds this tragectory
USD 15 2024 USD 22 2025. both prices trade significantly below my estimate for P1 pv10 value.
I beleive OIL will average $85 for 2024 and $ 95 for 2025 so any decent oil play will yield good results.,, i stay focused on KEI because it is such an obvious takeout candidate in which case you could add a 25 % premium to my forecasts. I challenge anyone to show a junior producing that increase average BOED like above .
Comment by
toppgunn on Sep 02, 2023 1:54pm
Carbonbull, Enjoy reading your posts. Keep it up!