Kolibri Global Energy Inc T.KEI

Listened to the management call

[Carbonbull]

Top points:
1) too early to get a handle on type curve of new wells but initial Flow/Pressure very encouraging
2) the mile and a half laterals significantly reduce the upfront costs to milk the ATM , 
3) more money coming back to shareholders
4) no more wells for 2024 , drilling locations being chosen for 2025
5) wells came in underbudget

[Intransigent]

Thanks Carbonbull. Do you have an estimate of year end production? Or too early to tell?

[Carbonbull]

Exit production should be north of 5000 boed if lucky close to 6000k , depending on drill program chosen for 2025 could see exit of 10k boed.  Budget needs to chose between buying shares back or money in the ground depending on bias I would expect 2025 production betwee 7k to 10k . either way that implies valuation of at least usd 10 to 12 .at spot WTI 70. this one has been difficult to

[wsm1234]

Hey CarbonBull, appreciate your insights as always. I respectfully disagree here. Q3 average was 3032 boepd, so likely exited Q3 around 2800 boepd with the decline on the 2 wells that came on in June. My estimate for the base production (prior to the 3 newest 1.5 mile Alicia Renee wells) for a YE exit would be 2500 boepd, and the 3 new wells (initial production 2800 boepd) will have a heavy

[Carbonbull]

the early pre clean up numbers in my opinion are light expect post clean up the three wells to average significantly higher , you are right about the hard decline on the one mile laterals , i suspect that the curve might be gentler on the mile and a half lateral (they were not aggresively proped ot Frac"d). As a matter of fact this is the key to value creation , I am anxiously waiting on new

[Carbonbull]

As to 2025 drilling i am modelling 3 wells per quarter as long as WTI averages $70 . once we reach the 10k  we need 4 -6 wells annualy to maintain a significant buyback /dividend model until taken out.

[wsm1234]

Thanks CarbonBull, didn't realize you had such an aggressive drilling program with your forecast for 10k for YE next year. 10k may be possible if 12 wells are drilled. Also, good info on the mile and a half laterals. I hope you are right and they have a lower decline.