Knt will release eps on 8/13... I'm not sure what eps may be and won't
speculate on any outcome until stage 3 is completed. Let's assume that
the new stage 3 full completion timeline is end 3rd q 2025. If so,
then full production will not occur until 4th q 2025.
So 290k/4= 72k AU eq production in 4th q 2025
Let's make some assumptions for when stage 3 is complete:
1.) P/E- For those of you who have been w Knt since 2018, you've
seen the P/E ratio exceed 70 and within last 2 years less than 30.
Today we are at 40... I'll use 35 for valuation here in case of sell off.
2.) Earnings/share- normally stated as $0.04/share for example.
But let's look at it from a net margin standpoint (net income/revenue).
Example: 1st q 2024= 3.1M net income/59.8M= 5% net margin
If we go back 4 years 4th to 1st q, here's what we have for net margin:
2023: 26%, 0%, 17%, 12%. 2022: 21%, 9%, 14%, 27%
2021: 29%, 14%, 12%, 7%. 2020: 23%, 26%, 37%, 17%
So, the net margin range runs from 0% to 37% because we've all
been thru Covid, maintenance shutdown, world explosives shortage,
summer deaths last year, the suspicious death shutdown this spring, etc.
Now, as previously mentioned, we currently have no idea how much
expansion cap ex, sustaining cap ex, and now $20M/year exploration
expense has yet to be spent or financed for stage 3 and 4.
This is why it is critical for analysts to get Lewins to provide more details.
But with all these unknowns, let's make a stab at what may occur.
For 4th q 2025 revenue (235M shares outstanding),
assume 72k AU eq oz at $2000/ AU gold eq= $144M total revenue
So, if net margin = 5% then income= $7.2M or $0.03/share.
If 10%, then $0.06/share; if 20%, then $0.12/share
If 30%, then $0.18/share... and that would be for the quarter.
If we assume knt can achieve 30% over 4 quarters while digesting their
debt (ie $0.18/share x 4 quarters= $0.72/share) then a P/E ratio of 35,
would result in a price at $25.
Since my kntnf= $5.25 as we speak, I can live with a $25 price in 2 years.
Obviously, the situation clarifies itself if we can all better understand how
knt will digest and finance stage 3 and 4.