Post by
tuesdaynightrid on Aug 21, 2024 10:38am
KNT 2nd Q Results/Conference Call Comments
Been traveling so just now able to review 2nd q results:
1.) Resource update from early 2024 drill results-
Maybe I missed it but there were no comments or questions on
when to expect results update? By end 2024? Early 2025?
This could be a very positive catalyst so why not ask the question.
2.) Realized KNT gold price from 2nd q at $2246-
I've commented before on how much lower KNT was to others
GOLD= $2344, AEM= $2342, NEM= $2347 in 2nd q so $100 gap.
It was mentioned by someone previously on this board that this
differential was due to some agreement a few years back.
According to the loan agreement with Tafigura in June, KNT has
stated that the ore concentrate will now be thru Trafigura with better
realized prices... a minor additional catalyst if they can reduce gap.
3.) EPS at +0.03 for 2nd q-
This was a positive since I expected the worse case as negative.
KNT sold only19k AU oz at a record high AISC of $1510.
* There AISC target is well under $1000 when stage 3 running.
This resulted in net margin (net income/revenue) at 13%...
I think much better than should have been expected.
So, Lewins specifically stated KNT expects "70k plus" oz in the
2nd half 2024... or 35k per quarter. If you assume:
a.) AISC will be reduced due to inefficiencies of 2nd q downtime
b.) Approx 20k more gold produced in 3rd q
c.) Gold price in 3rd q to date trending higher compared to 2nd q
Therefore, if revs come in at $75M in 3rd vs. $48M in 2nd and KNT
achieves a net margin at 25% (assumes no more netative surprises)
then I can see 3rd q eps reaching $010/share (ttm= $0.22).
If p/e=40 then P= $9 for kntnf ( now at $5.62).
Hope that's all bone is correct I my haste.
Comment by
tuesdaynightrid on Aug 21, 2024 2:50pm
Fair enough, i have not looked at the open commodity contracts. Also, there is a difference between gold sold vs produced which I may have intertwined.... but, as you note, the produced vs sold gold inventory will even out over a few quarters. That said, I do believe that both the gold sold or produced will both exceed 35k oz in 3rd q.