Laurentian Bank of Canada T.LB

Is it time to buy

[Ranger56]

A few basic facts to consider:
5 Year Low:   25.74 (On Oct/26/20 a few days after news of New CEO appointment)
Rania Starts: 26.90 (On Oct/30/20 day 1 with Rania as new CEO)
Q3-2020 Report Sep/4/20 just before Rania Starts: 29.07
Q3-2023 Report Aug/31/23 just before Rania exits. 36.64 (before strategic review ends-no buyer)
Is LB a better bank now after 3 years with Rania as CEO?
Measure ------- Q3-2020 Results ---- Q3-2023 Results ---- Improvement
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Income:----- 36.2M ------------------ 49.3M --------------------  + 36 %
EPS            :---- 0.77 per share -------- 1.03 per share ---------  + 34 %
Adj Net Inc  :---- 47.1M ------------------- 57.6M --------------------  + 22 %
Adj EPS      :---- 1.02 per share -------- 1.22 per share ---------  + 20 %
Qtr Dividend:----0.40 per share --------- 0.47 per share ---------  + 17 %
Revenue     :----- 249M -------------------- 261M --------------------   + 5 %

[rad10]

I bought a few more today at 27.  Its too cheap. Do I think this is a great bank? - not really, but by every metric it is cheap.  Dividend is well covered and it is 6 and change with a 45% payout ratio or thereabouts. Please do correct me if I am wrong.  I never take anything personally on these BBs

[perplexed01]

well if you liked it in the 27's you will like it even more in the 26's.  seems like strong downtrend but i cant resist nibbling too.

[DeanEdmonton]

I get guys wanting to play this stock for the upside after this big down trend. While it is impossible to pick a bottom, there is also no point in trying to catch a falling knife. Watch what the big 6 share prices are doing, when they turn and show a consistent up trend, that is when I would be looking at picking up bit players like LB. There is nothing keeping LB from being sub $24 in this market

[perplexed01]

all good points neighbor!  what makes this stock an attractive lottery pick for me is 1.  thinly traded - extremely volatile 2.  it's a bank - french & eastern but still canadian 3.  dividend now almost 7% would still be covered even with increased provisioning 4.  new management might just carry off a sale - possible huge upside given (1) SP is so volatile your

[DeanEdmonton]

Perplex - fair enough. Guy has to have some fun too. That said, making money is more fun than losing money for most guys. :-)

[rad10]

It's a cigar butt.  6.5% yield on my cost basis. Crappy bank, but unlikely to fail.  You know some bottom feeder will try to scoop this up in the low thirties.  I don't think I'm going to lose too much on this.  Full position since last week. GLTA - and thanks for the bearish opinions Dean. It's a dog with fleas, no doubt.

[winnerswing]

It would likely take big patience to see the price to fully recover to the  40-50$ range, if it would ever do. I don't think price will go up to the 40's within couples of weaks.  

[perplexed01]

i think ur right winner - nothing will happen in the next few weeks or months except possibly finding a bottom.  + who knows how tax loss selling will affect SP?  so thinly traded that SP moves are exaggerated.  but i believe the dividend is well covered  and current SP is a great value.   paid to wait.  if management gets their act together - sale etc. it might

[DeanEdmonton]

So perplex, you liked it in the $27s, liked it even more in the $26s, you must be absolutely LOVING it in the $25s. You will be just plain swooning and Giddy in the $23s

[rad10]

My understanding is that they received an unsolicited confidential offer.  If this drops into the low twenties - the original suitor may go public. I think the downside is limited.

[rad10]

My understanding is that they received an unsolicited confidential offer. @If this drops into the low twenties - the original suitor may go public. I think the downside is limited.

[perplexed01]

hi dean - as per my previous posts my plan is to buy in $.50 increments as SP drops.  i dont know where the bottom is but i feel there is increasingly good value here.  as already posted i believe $20 SP possible but who knows - not me anyway.  i also believe it will snap back very quickly so the bottom will be hard to identify until after a major move.  and given some

[DeanEdmonton]

GREAT reply. I truly hope you make a metric TON. About time someone made money on LB. Personally, I lack the Testicular Mass to be one of them. ;-) All the best.  

[winnerswing]

I'm in! I'm in! A_G_A_I_N!

[rad10]

This dog getting some love.....  lol.  Need a renewed offer for the more receptive leadership.

[winnerswing]

I got 1 like, and now my reputation dropped from 26 to a mere 4! What a strange way this reputation algorithm works...

[Northforce13]

Did you say something negative about a stock people like?     If the system allows people to reduce your reputation, that's a way shareholders could "get back at you " for saying something unkind about stocks they own.  

[winnerswing]

I don't think one can vote 'do not like'. I think it removes you points if you did not receive at least a like for a big while.

[DeanEdmonton]

The way reputation works, the likes stay on for 12 months, after that they drop off and you have a rolling 12 month total. If you post less or get less likes over time, your reputation score will decrease as the old likes drop off.

[rad10]

Also if you call out pumpers on garbage penny stocks - they will complain and get you "unliked" Most recent penny stock pump scams I have seen unfold include. HUGE, AH, and RWB - not alleging those companies are inherently fraudulent, just some anonymous keyboard warriors pumping them.

[perplexed01]

hi dean, thanks for the kind wishes.  good luck to all of us!