Tidewater Renewables Ltd T.LCFS

RBC LCFS Foundation Report excerpts

[capedcrusader]

Here you go @Wynner

Investment summary

We expect Tidewater Renewables’ shares to perform in line with its peers for the following key reasons:

• Potential for strong cash flow contribution, but uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of an LCFS recovery. If B.C. LCFS credit prices recover, we believe the facility could produce roughly $120 million in annual EBITDA. However, given the uncertainty with respect to the time frame and magnitude of a recovery in B.C. LCFS credit prices, we believe material upside in the shares may be capped.

• An early mover with an ability to leverage Tidewater Midstream’s existing platform. With minimal renewable diesel production in Canada at present, we think the company will benefit from being an early mover that can leverage Tidewater Midstream’s existing assets to drive strong economics for its projects.

• Feedstock flexibility and security help mitigate pressures of increased competition. By incorporating a pre-treatment unit at the renewable diesel and renewable hydrogen complex and securing tallow and used cooking feedstock volumes (historically waste products with little market value), we think the company is well positioned to use minimal volumes of higher-cost feedstocks such as vegetable oils.

•Potential catalysts. The renewable diesel project generating EBITDA consistent with management's guidance for "run rate" EBITDA; increases in renewable diesel pricing; further favourable announcements related to securing feedstock volumes or LCFS and CFR credit values.

Sector Perform Speculative Risk TSX: LCFS; CAD 1.74 Price Target CAD 5.00

Key Statistics

Shares O/S (MM):

Dividend:

Float (MM):

Strategic Ownership: Tidewater Midstream owns 69%

 

[wynner]

Something "not adding up" for me. If PGR is producing 6000 bbls of diesel and the rest is gasoline. HDRD produces 3000 bbls of RD. Then buys diesel for blending from TWM. Are they not buying ALL the diesel? Surely they are not blending at 50%. They mentioned 30% last year. Then who buys the RD? Also with LNG Canada about to have first cargo (December?) . How much LCFS do they need? The

[goodbuddy]

Green Party hates who?

[wynner]

The BC Green Party is against LNG Canada and wants to stop the other LNG projects from getting started. They also don't like fracking in BC. They DO like the carbon "tax". You can read it in their platform. They are saying the pollution is not worth it. The Cons are against the tax (supposedly ) but they will not turn down the $3 billion in income. That's likely more than big oil