MEDRELEAF CORP T.LEAF

Just did some homework on LEAF...

[richc3]

Started a position in LEAF earlier in the day -- anyone else? While researching also came across this interesting tidbit...

 

> LEAF is one of the industry leaders in Canada. For the quarter ended December 2016, reported sales were C$10.4 million. By comparison, generally accepted leader Canopy Growth (OTCPK:TWMJF) reported sales of C$9.0 million for the same quarter. But WEED's acquisition of Mettrum Health closed in January 2017 so they probably retain the title of 'king of the hill'. But LEAF is a leader with a reported 19% market share in August 2016 and reports a monthly market share of 15% to 20%.

 

Check out these numbers for December: https://i.imgur.com/tqe8IlE.png

 

Long SEDAR document with tons of information: https://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=0000t-rEEonb339VV14OyqTRGnT:188setvlh

[kbro]

Does it blow right through is ipo price offering of 9.50. Lot of investors in at 9.50. Lots of plans for bradford space. Its a big bldg. Probably 25% growing crop right now. 3 big grow rooms slated to be done end of summer.

[HaadYuan]

Also got in on friday but only with a small position. Let's see how it goes, but I estimate it will be over 9,50 real quick

[GoBlue2016]

lots of info.  Metrics largely better than CGC as at Dec/16.  The two I want watch before entering is: price per gram and usage per patient.  They have lots of vets that will be affected by VAC decision to reduce their reimbursement to $8.50/gram (Nov/16) and reduction to from 10/gram to 3/grams a day (May/17).   Aphria noted the first in their flat sales for last Q. 

[smush74]

They actually pay all the costs to Vets even with the 8.50 cap. So actually their revenue would have been higher since they absorbed the difference.

[GoBlue2016]

[GoBlue2016]

So they paid themselves the difference so their revenue would be higher.  Huh??? I am not following your logic.  GoBlue

[EconMike]

I believe the real point to look at here is market share. Revenue shouldn’t be higher, but keeping their existing patients is what is really important. My understanding is that LEAF made certain adjustments to their pricing and policies to retain their Veteran base, in light of the changes to Government funding. Looking at their total implied market share of roughly 20%, they stand to lose a bit

[GoBlue2016]

Fully agree keeping patients happy is the best route.  What do you think the cutback from max 10 grams/ day to 3 at end of May does?

[smush74]

It will just require more paperwork but the Vet community using medical marijuana is rather pro-active and we help each other when it comes to these issues and navigate the system.

[smush74]

I order a order i.e. Rex which is 17.50$ per gram, the government pays them the max 8.50 they assume the 9.00 dollar difference. Not the full amount they would have prior to November. Us Vets get the product at no cost to us.

[GoBlue2016]

Ok now I get it. But they don't count the difference as revenue.   Thus my concern as to revenue in Q4 versus Q3.  And then the usage per patient after May with drop in max gram per day. Which will also impact revenue.  Thanks GoBlue

[smush74]

that is why I'm waiting on the next quarters numbers, then I can better evaluate how much upside is there. I think someone mentioned it here those that are producing have a huge leg up on starters waiting for permits. Best of luck