My Estimation
1) V2O5 Equivalent
Q4-23 Sales = 2,605T = 5,743,042lbs
Q4-23 Average Benchmark V2O5 price = US$6.46/lb
Assuming Price per pound of V2O5 equivalent sold = US$7.00/lb
Q4-23 V ERevenue = US$7.00 x 5,743,042lbs = ~US$40.5M
Q1+Q2+Q3 Actual V Revenue = US$154.5M
FY-23 Vanadium ERevenue = 154.5 + 40.5 = US$195.0M
2) Ilmenite
Q4-23 Ilmenite Estimated Sales = 8,970T
Assuming Ilmenite Price = US$280/T
Q4-23 Ilmenite ERevenue = US$280 x 8,970T = ~US$2.5M
3) Total FY-23 E Revenue
US$195 (V2O5) + US$2.5M (Ilmenite) = ~US$197.5M vs Analyst Consensus ERevenue of US$180.5M
4) FY-23 EPS = ???
Q1+Q2+Q3 Actual EPS = (US$0.30)
FY-23 Analyst Consensus Earnings per Share = (US$0.35).
Imho, Largo was unlikely to meet the analyst expectation for FY-23 EPS.
5) Cash Position = ???
Cash as at June 30 2023 = US$64M
Cash as at Sept 30 2023 = US$39.6M (or a burn rate of US$24.4M in Q3-23)
What was the Q4-23 Cash burn rate?
What was Largo’s cash position at the end of 2023?
Imho, Largo will need to raise funds (either by equity, debt or a combination of both financing methods) soon.
DYODD