LIQUOR STORES NA LTD 4.70 PCT DEBS T.LIQ.DB.B

sales during a recession

[chr905]

I know Alberta is in a recession but the thing is alcohol use goes up in a recession. i could see the next few quarters of sales being very good. i just made my first purchase of this company. with more to come in the future.

[biggerr]

maybe LIQ should close its stores in the beaten down oil towns and move them to Calgary and BC instead

[Ticker28]

No they don't need to do that.  Same store sales are relatively flat  for Alberta and the resource sector will come back.  Fort Mac and Grande Prairie stores will still stay afloat just fine until oil turns a corner.  Liquor consumption increases in recessions as people just merely trade down brands.  We make more margin on the private label brands so this is perfect

[biggerr]

just the reminder that the deal for NJ Birchfield stores closes in 2 weeks, it's over $24 mil. revenue starting to flow immediately, maybe the last chance to buy LIQ in the $8's Birchfield recorded total sales of USD $47.4 million in 2014, and is expected to exceed this level in 2015 Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2015/11/19/liquor-stores-expands-into-new

[mercatos]

The Birchfield deal once fully purchased and could add 10% growth to the top line sales in Canadian dollars. Heres how.  47.4 Million USD were 2014 Sales...with conservative 2% yoy sales growth for 2015 and again for 2016 that is equal to just under 49 million usd. Converted at aprox 1.34 it represents 65 million cdn top line sales for 2016.  Close to 8% growth top line from one deal

[Ticker28]

[mercatos]

Hey Ticker28 That is exactly what I mean. @For the east coast distance between states is a very short drive so to me it was a great transaction. @Buy a successfull business in New Jersey and leverage that talent to open up 2 more locations right away. @By the way i believe that New Jersey will allow 9 locations per master liscencee by 2020. In my previous life I worked for Sysco. @If you study

[Ticker28]

Thanks for your post and ideas based on your experience with Sysco.  I know NJ is presently only allowing 2 but you may be correct about allowing liscensing of up to 9 locations. I do k now Massachussetts and Connecticut allow multiple liscense's with Massechussetts expanding the limit from 5 to 9 stores by 2020.  Your also correct about the power that SAP can add to their business

[mercatos]

Hey Ticker28 That is exactly what I mean.  For the east coast distance between states is a very short drive so to me it was a great transaction.  Buy a successfull business in New Jersey and leverage that talent to open up 2 more locations right away.  By the way i believe that New Jersey will allow 9 locations per master liscencee by 2020. In my previous life I worked for Sysco.

[freedom-1970]

Over the next year we will start to see the stock price move up as the market will see cash flow from our last deal . No Question we need to keep growing thru deals and take this company to a new level!  I had the pleasure of visiting 5 locations last year and the mangers said to me at 2 locations said the 'POT ' business may be in the cards ?  Any thoughts on this option ??&

[Ticker28]

Canada is talking about allowing the sales of Cannabis and regulating it's distribution through Liquor Stores.  This means more traffic in and out of existing stores but also brings risk from robbery, etc..  I think the reward far outweights the risk. I did find that for Connecticut - 3 stores are permitted and Massechussetts is again expanding the limit to 7 in 2016 and again to 9

[freedom-1970]

I think the add on business of Cannabis could add 20% to our top line sales in Canada , while adding one stop shopping. Its a great fit !  Maybe a takeover on small plays like V.RUM are in the cards this year ?  Options on deals must be endless..

[mercatos]

If Wikipedia is correct 130 stores with 1.5 billion in sales.  Nice store avg of over 11 million per store.  Hell ya the states is where Liquor Stores needs to grow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Wine_%26_More

[Ticker28]

Precisely.  The economy of scale is massive in the United States.  This is why LSNA will outperform any rival that is strictly Alberta based such as Rocky Mountain Liquor - RUM.V If we hit the US market and scale up we can be doing an incredible amount of sales quickly just as others have done.  Maybe in time even complete a merger with a rival such as Total Wines and More if it