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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum LIQUOR STORES NA LTD 4.70 PCT DEBS T.LIQ.DB.B

TSX:LIQ.DB.B - Post Discussion

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Post by mercatos on Feb 07, 2016 8:47pm

Capex

I dont think we are going to have any share buy backs in the next 2 or 3 years or ever....if anything LIQ should go through a share split and then file a shelf prospectus.  Raise more capital with a lower dividend/share

Anyway what I really would like LIQ to stop doing is investing in Alberta.  Put a freeze on any investments, store freshening, or buying any other business like RUM.... Close down unprofitable stores immediately.  Spend freeze for 2 years would be a start.

The capital would be best used investing in new store openings in the US prefereably eastern US.

Also lets not forget that US market is $200 billion opportunity vs aprox $20 billion in Canada.  I just wish LIQ would be more aggressive in there intent to expand in the US.  By sending a message of diverting Capex to US expansion would show investors strong intent.  I also would like LIQ to have a more aggressive tone to the market on their growth plans, frequent news releases of new stores opening, record breaking sales...etc...
Comment by BrusselSprout on Feb 07, 2016 11:38pm
Well put and on point.
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 08, 2016 4:28am
LIQ has never mentioned any intent to buyback shares, so you very well could be right in you assessment. Although part of this strategy is to keep quiet about that until you get permission and are ready to ponce. No point in letting the cat out of the bag too early. But it was only mentioned here that if the company has plans to continue paying this 15% Dividend that it might be a good idea. Like ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 08, 2016 4:56am
I am trying to follow you on this share split, but I am getting lost. If the company did a 2 for 1 Split then each Shareholder would end up with double there shares. If you kept the Dividend at $1.08 / share then the Dividends would be double to what they are now. The Share Price and Net Earning per Share would also be cut in half and the Share Price would be $3.70 / share right now. So I think ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 08, 2016 6:06am
To tell you the truth the more I think about it the more I like your idea about a Reverse-split. Especially if the company plans to cut this Dividend in half anyway. With a Reverse-split I still only end up with half the Dividend I used to get but at least I don't think we would suffer on the Share Price to. In fact the Share Price may even go up as at a $1.08 Dividend per share, and only half ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 09, 2016 3:12pm
This is not how the dividend behaves on a stock split or reverse stock split.  If you do a 2 for 1 stock split then the div/share is cut in half and the dividend percentage remains exactly the same.  If you do a 1 for 2 reverse then the div/share is doubled, and again, the dividend percentage remains exactly the same.  Case in point, I bought SBUX pre-split.  The percentage ...more  
Comment by downwithdotcom1 on Feb 09, 2016 8:00pm
a stock split at these prices would spell DOOM...a lot of investment funds have strict criteria about a stock trading below $5 and would be forced to SELL - below this level its seen as no longer investment grade ie a penny stock with all the trimmings NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. dwdc
Comment by Storman on Feb 09, 2016 8:40pm
I would love to see the following happening: 1. Consolidate and streamline the Canadian operation to make it lean and more efficient. That may involves closing stores here and there. 2. Cut the dividend by 30% to preserve capital and utilize the funds for more expansion in the US. 3. Reverse split 2 for 1. 3. Start a planned and calculated espansion in the US. I Love to see this company having 80 ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 09, 2016 9:04pm
You raised some very good points which I agree with most of them. I would love to see more diversification out of Alberta to. Executives do already have bonus tied into Stock Options, which they can't collect at this low share price, but Stocks being part of there salary seems like a good idea to me. I only hope they do to and don't quit as a result of that. The only thing I question you ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 09, 2016 8:46pm
You are correct about this Stock Split dwnwithdotcomm1 and I couldn't agree with you more. In fact I was going to write this very same thing next but you beat me to it. A Stock Split does in fact put us in Penny Stock Category and in fact many Institutional Investor do not, or cannot, invest in them. Which very well could result in a Sell Off. However a Reverse-split is still possible as it ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 09, 2016 8:32pm
Okay! Let's break this down into numbers that are easier to see. The Company pays $1.08 per share for a Dividend. This is the Constant here! No matter what happens the company has agreed to pay $1.08 per share. Right now the company has about 27.5M Shares Outstanding and the Share Price is $7.16. So the Dividend Yield would be $1.08 / 7.16 = 15.1% which it is right now. This Yield chances as ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 09, 2016 9:35pm
I should add that it is not to say that companies who do a Split or Reverse-split, don't make adjustment to there Dividend Payment to reflect these changes, as they usually do. But they don't have to. In Corporate Bonds or Debentures, the Yields generally stay the same and the Bond Price goes up and down depending on Market conditions. With a Dividend the Dividend Yield is constantly ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 10, 2016 12:47pm
Respectfully, your logic is flawed here.  The Yield/share DOES NOT stay the same $1.08 on a 2 for one split.  If you double the shares, then naturally the div/share would have to go down by half in order for the yield to be the same.  So the div/share would go down to $0.54. This is not a cut, but a mathematical operation to keep the yield exactly as it was prior to split (It' ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 10, 2016 1:19pm
Oh, just to help out a little further, take a look at this link which describes the term "Split Adjusted". https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/splitadjusted.asp Note: I'm totally not trying to insult you or anything, but just providing knowledge to help everyone on the forum out.  Thanks! BTW: I just bought into LIQ recently on the news of expansion into New Jersey.  I ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 10, 2016 1:25pm
Sorry everyone.  This link is more useful as it describes the situation exactly: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/splitdividend.asp
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 10, 2016 7:13pm
I am glad you could join us. This Dividend on a Stock Split / Reverse Split has gotten mixed up. You need to go back a few pages to get to the start of this now. So just a short recap. The company presently has about 27.5M and pays $1.08 per share per year which is $29.7M paid on Dividends per year. So the Constant here is actually $27.9M. So on a 2 for 1 or even 3 for 1 Stock Split, or a 1 for 2 ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 11, 2016 11:10am
I did read from the start and I do understand all that.  However, if they do not split adjust the div/share then we are talking about a div cut or increase.  That wasn't the point the OP was trying to make.  All he was saying is that a 2 for 1 split would create a lower split adjusted div/share.  Anyway I think this is all moot because it would probably be a very bad ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 12, 2016 3:56am
So do you think that a Dividend Cut by 50% right now is Good News for the Share Price??? It was only suggested that if the company plans to cut the Dividend by 50% anyway, and (IF) is a big word here, there was 2 ways of doing it. Revers-split 1 for 2 first then keep the Dividend at $1.08 per share, in essence keeping the stock out of Penny Stock Territory, or just cut it at 7.15 putting it closer ...more  
Comment by DoubleOhDiv on Feb 12, 2016 8:09am
:-) It's not confusing.  I'm just pointing out that we're talking about different operations here.  A split or reverse split is a VERY different thing than a dividend cut or raise.  I don't see why these things need to be coupled at all. These moves by a company to try to "hide" a dividend cut or raise by doing some sort of split, at the same time, would ...more  
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 12, 2016 5:22pm
Actually I do use the Enter Key every time I write and when I am finished it is spaced. But after I send it gets all bunched together and I have no idea why? I am also not sure why my LINKs don't work either.
Comment by Storman on Feb 13, 2016 12:36am
Hey Double.  I think you are right on all counts. Regarding dividend payments I have the feeling the founders of this company have promoted through the years a culture of rewarding shareholders with dividends instead of capital appreciation and that dates back from the time this comapny was an income fund. Until today the board seems still very hesitant to even consider cutting dividend and ...more  
Comment by ILUVDIVIDENDS on Feb 13, 2016 8:09am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Goldbuggy1 on Feb 08, 2016 5:37am
I think the company's expansion into the USA has done quiet well recently. Early in 2015 the company proposed to open 10 new stores in Canada and the USA by the end of 2017. Since then in Canada they open some small Convenience Store somewhere and the end of the 3rd Quarter, which I don't really count. But last summer they opened 2 large-format stores in Kentucky. Followed by there 51 ...more  
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