Maxar Technologies Inc. T.MAXR

Major down-trend lines broken...

[SignorAnderson]

Maxar has broken some major down-trend lines. Price movement is out of (some of) these steep decline lines and has shown some stability over the past 4 months. I see this as generally positive.

That doesn't mean the trend is up. It means a clear trend has not been established. BUT on that note we have two positive technical formations, a reverse head and shoulders and a wedge with higher lows. A key technical piece will be taking back US $5 and closing above US $5. That could happen as early as TODAY but could take some time. Given Q1 around the corner, I am apt to lean toward breaking to the upside in advance of Q1 results. 

Another possibility is meandering slightly below US $5 until Q1 and then letting fundamentals dictate direction, and possibly violently in either direction depending on information and sentiment gleaned from the Q1 results. On the downside, US $4.50 will be a key support level.

A positive resolution to either of these formations both point to an immediate US $6.20 target within 2 - 4 months. Low US $6.80 will be the next logical step followed by quickly regaining US $10 for which there is limited resistance should US $6.80 - $7.00 be achievable.

I am not expecting Q1 to be good BUT if there are some key nuggets of expense reduction and further stability (in revenues etc.) then the share price is ready to improve and there will be limited headwinds IMO. This can move and will likely move sharply. The insurance claim alone could be one of those catalysts. Fundamentally, contract wins will be key in terms of regaining credibility in the market. Such positive major catalysts could provide violent movement to the upside.

Of course there are also the possibility of the other proverbial shoe(s) to drop. The safer play would be to wait out Q1 results and possibly Q2 results for direction and then evaluate positions later. This is the appraoch most market analysts are taking. You are definitely taking on more risk at these levels but then again risk is in the eye of the beholder LOL.

Interestingly, on a side note, not one comment on my analysis of the insurance claim.

GLTA

[SignorAnderson]

We are also butting up against the 50 day MA. Which is positive in that Maxar hasn't seen its 50 day moving average much in the past year or so (this is the second time, previous time failed). The 50 day MA would need to fall in order for share price to advance. This stock has the makings of a stock that could increase but it needs and/or is looking for a significant catalyst. Q1 could be

[UlyssesSGrant]

Thanks for your in depth analysis. It definitely did give me food for thoughts. I'm also of the opinion that even a slightly bullish Q1 would send the stock flying... 

[SignorAnderson]

US $6.20 target achieved. So much for 2 - 4 months.