Maxar Technologies Inc. T.MAXR

Target Price & Valuation Increases...

[SignorAnderson]

Morningstar increased its fair value to US $11.90 and/or CAD $16.06 (used to be about CAD $11-13).

TDSI raised its target from US $6.50 to US $7.50 and indicated they do not see Maxar as violating any debt covenants. Any positive contract wins etc. are not factored into their target (just existing business).

Take the above with large amounts of salt.

These were the same people that said the company was worth US $60 + also at one time and had targets around those prices.

Q1 results will either confirm this uptrend or not.

IF (big "IF") Q1 results are seen as positive by the market then US $7.50 will be history very quickly.

If you can't handle the possible volatility / risk then get out now and reasses after Q1 results. That will be the safer play. If you still like Maxar you could theoretically get shares cheaper OR if things are positive (and interpreted as such) then you may have to pony up more per share but you will be more assured of the uptrend continuing.

GLTA

[Brandonrr]

Agreed. If this thing drops After Q1 I am buying more. Too much upside here and they will get their sh!t together. 

[SignorAnderson]

We have many reasons why Maxar can/will buck the overall market trend. After all, Maxar bucked the overall market trend by dropping 90% while the overal market has been at/near all time highs. If Q1 is okay (which means per expections not so good) to "actually good" (meaning significant improvements) then Maxar may buck the trend by powering higher whether or not the overall market

[UlyssesSGrant]

I wonder if the market not pricing in the complete insurance claim is tied to the fact that earnings per share are estimated at (0.88$) for Q1. If restructuration efforts show promises, I believe there is hope for more short term upside. 

[SignorAnderson]

I think it depends on how you look at it. The price did advance somewhat into that news and then jumped heavily. I don't expect a full 100% reflection right away. It actually reflected more than I was thinking at least right away / immeediately. Percentage-wise we are up huge. As long as Q1 results are not more of a disaster than most expect then this uptrend will have more legs in the short

[SignorAnderson]

Wow...just wow! Next natural target is US $10. There is very little technical or fundamental reason for this not to happen and we have this clear sailing period prior to Q2. Technically, there is little to no resistance in this area. One contract win will almost ensure that. Actually, not seeing a contract win over the next few months would be a negative. The question then becomes...WHEN? And

[UlyssesSGrant]

Having read the last earning call transcript, it seems that both the CEO and the CFO are cautiously optimistic about a contract for the GEOCOMSAT segment... If restructuring goes well, management will have eliminated the last financial drag on the company. It's up to World View Legion to deliver and help delevering the stock.  The strings of good news lately is just too good to

[SignorAnderson]

If you had to value Maxar, one could justify a value far greater than the current price on current metrics (not any future growth). Some could justify mutliples of the current price. History be told, many have thought the same and put up cold hard cash to that belief (in the past). Morningstar, a generally conservative valuator has a value over US $12. Based on EBITDA and normalized EBITDA

[SignorAnderson]

BTW, we just blew by US $7...yet another technical accomplishment. Everyone is seeing this and it is very bullish. Considering it is happening on a huge down day in the US markets is really something to behold...but then again, I did predict it lol. This is like football, little by little Maxar is gaining back lost ground and right now, rather convincingly.

[UlyssesSGrant]

Thank you very much @SignorAnderson You absolutely did. My broker does not provide any other analyst research than Morningstar and it is hard to come across a smart soul on the Web these days. As well, there seems to be quite a big gap in what most firms make of Maxar. National Bank Financials moved their valuation from 6 to 7 while TD just cut theirs from 7.50 to 7. The cornucopia of different

[SignorAnderson]

These banks are heavily discounting Maxar's future due to uncertainty and debt levels (despite TD indicating that they expect NO bank covenant breaches). TD is valuing and discounting based on their 2022 numbers (which I do not see them disclosing and I do not value their opinion enough to reverse engineer it lol) and then they give it a 6-6.5 multiple and then they go and discount that by 15

[UlyssesSGrant]

Exactly as you've said @SignorAnderson... The narrative is actually the same in both articles I've read... Only the price valuation was depreciated. I'm actually dissapointed since I used to put a lot of trust into those analyst recommendations as they are from reputable canadian institutions. I realize I'm better off doing my own ressearch now. These were written only 9 months

[Turtleinvestor]

In my eyes, these stock analysts are no different than the pumpers and bashers on SH, if one follows their recommendations it would be the fastest way to lose all the money , they recommend one to buy at all time high and sell at all time low. PURE BULLSH$TS ! WHAT THOSES WALL STREET WOLVES SAY.

[Brandonrr]

Agreeded. I was watching one on BNN about a month ago and I just bought back into maxr....he said stay away and then bam all the good news came out and lucky I didnt listen to him

[Alba1314]

I just heard of Maxar yesterday so I've missed out on some decent action. Congrats to those who got in earlier! Wondering how people feel about things for the next few weeks. Maybe a pull back/consolodation or perhaprs a continual rise? 

[staythecourse]

Here's one for you. I jumped in just before the satellite was lost and my stock dropped by about 50%. I have since added and am now about 25% up. Talk about a roller coaster! As my handle implies, I am generally a long-term investor.