Microbix Biosystems Inc T.MBX

unfortunately

[Mbxwatcher]

Unfortunately, I expect a disappointing Q2 relative to the feeling I had going into Q2.  Further I think the market also expects this, which is reflected in the share price.  Here is why:

1.  No Plexxus deal in Q2.  Unthinkable. at the end of Q1
2.  I dont expect large sales numbers of VTM in Q2, based on the AGM.  There will be some incremental sales for sure, but not to the level we expected at the end of Q1.  This goes hand in hand with the lack of a Plexxus deal.
3. I think antigen sales will be about where they were in Q1, as the Pandemic continues to rage on, and it is hard to see how anything great will have happened.  
4. QAP's will likely increase over Q1 and possibly materially.  However, even an extra 1m in the quarter would be a great acheivement.  So......In a perfect world I see top line revenue as follows:

Antigens 2.5m
VTM        .5 m
Qaps      1.5 m

Total  4.5 m

I understand this would be a very significant increase over the past and a huge achievement in the development of the company.  But it may not be the homerun quarter that everyone is hoping for.

If I am right, and I hope I am not, then the Plexxus deal or a Kinlytic deal are the only real short term catalysts for share price appreciation.  I have confidence in the company and the direction, but we may languish at these prices for another quarter.

Does anyone else have bolder predictions?

[rovaniemirover]

mbxwatcher, now that's sticking your neck out!  I like your back of the envelope analysis, which seems to be fairly solid.  I too am perplexed as to why no Plexus deal yet?  Not only is this holding up a significant source of revenue growth for MBX, but by not squaring up a deal it holds MBX back from pursuing a global deal with another customer, because of the right of first

[Mbxwatcher]

Could not agree more..............I hesitate to come across as a basher, because I am long on this stock as I have stated before, and the progress this year has been solid.  However, on this one issue,  it is a real head scratcher.   My intuition tells me that its not an issue of bureaucracy, but price.   In this pandemic, our governments have demonstrated their

[tasman99]

As more are vacinated,  will testing  become required less? less need for our covid product. MBX misses the boat and stk bleeds down...

[Mbxwatcher]

The original idea for VTM was to become the primary supplier for this in Ontario.  My understanding is that many tests (not just Covid), require VTM, and that we had no domestic source for this.  This was a large reason for our lag in testing at the beginning of the Pandemic.   As this is all incremental business to MBX, I dont think it is a case of "missing the boat"

[tasman99]

THANKYOU

[RazeKreations]

Just because plex us has not signed a deal does not mean there are no vtm sales. Big demand. Ontario gets first refusal then it goes on the market. May 14 will tell the story. Announcements mean nothing

[Mbxwatcher]

Raze, I am not going by announcements.  Cameron stated in the AGM that that the VTM was not sold, and spoke about the expiry dates of the new production lots having longer dates than the first batches.....Therefore, I am drawing the conclusion that there are not great sales for VTM in the second quarter. I also clearly stated that I would rather be wrong. I disagree that announcements mean

[wizzdumb]

Cameron said they did not sell all the VTM produced. Other customers wanted assurance of long term supply so walked and went elsewhere so MBX put the VTM on the shelf. My take on his answer is that they labeled it such that it won't expire by the time they finally get a deal signed with Plexxus and that they will take that past supply as well as the new so in fact the initial production sales