Microbix Biosystems Inc T.MBX

Analysis

[Mbxwatcher]

One thing I know for absolute certain:
I would be very happy to trade at .75 while we wait for the launch of Kinlytic.

At them moment i dont see the catalyst for that leap but who knows what else they may have up their sleeve.....

[wizzdumb]

Agree. I'm surprised we haven't heard of a VTM replacement yet......lots of teases, but nothing concrete yet. 

[Mbxwatcher]

To me thats the only game changer in the very short term.......would love to see something on VTM

[rjc7]

I'm waiting for something totally out of left field that nobody was expecting. They do hold their cards close to their chest. 

[wizzdumb]

That's for sure, almost to their detriment. 

[mercedesman]

I think this is as simple as stringing together several more quarters of better than expected margins and profits to make everyone forget about fiscal 2023. Getting annualized revenues above $30 M will help too.  Otherwise this gets taken out for a song ( but still at a premium) as K royalties get closer and closer to reality.  Investors today basically get huge Kinlytic upside

[Method]

  Is there an obvious buyer for Microbix? What are the precedent transaction multiples? A buyer could pay out Kinlytic as a CVR if they don't want to pay up for it. None of the analysts attribute a lot of value for Kinlytic and I struggle to understand why except conservatism. Perhaps that just means I'm too optimistic on success and revenue ramp.

[mercedesman]

QuidelOrtho comes to mind. $3 B MC , also a customer. but I am sure there are many more. Many public US Biotechs are looking to add revenue streams ... especially those that can be acquired at a substantial discount.  Not saying it'll happen, but the longer the general market misprices it, the more likely it is that someone in the industry gets an idea on how to make an accretive

[Method]

  I think it's hard for a customer to buy the QAPs business. Probably needs to be another supplier otherwise there is too much risk of losing business. Any other ideas?

[mercedesman]

Vertical integration happens all the time.  Mainly to secure a steady source of supply.  But if you get another revenue stream for the future as a bonus, why not?  Not saying it will happen, but it's always a real possibility. 

[RICHOFFMBX]

Agreed.  Some good news is that there's been more volume on the buy side of things for the last few weeks. Nobody seems to be jumping at the bid still - a lot of patience and restraint, but a marked improvement over the last 2 months for the time being, at least.