MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

Missing a billion?

[MigraineCall]

Seems to me the latest 2023 RBC estimate for MEG is a bit low. The numbers don't add up. 

The estimates for WTI are up, production up, costs down, AECO down. Either I'm missing something here, or MEG is going to surprise big time to the upside in '23.

Only about 1 year to go till 100% FCF return to shareholders on decades of proven reserves.

[MaximusGainus]

Yeah, this doesn't make sense for 2023. It's much better than this. Funny numbers. Net revenues down by $863M? Purchased product down from $560M to $48M? FCF down from 2060$M to $1687M? No dividend while we move to 100% shareholder return in 2023? Can't be right. It has to be far better than this report, yet this report is still awesome in the big picture.

[newcoin]

I'm hoping for the establishment of an initial dividend in the fourth quarter. They can do it if they want and shareholders want it. S/p goes up.

[jleer42]

I expect they will stick to their announced plan and I would be concerned if they didn't. No dividend before H2 2023 when net debt hits $600M. MEG might lag other O&G companies at times for the next year, but MEG is going to be a bank machine. I will continue to hold long, as my concern is being out of MEG whenever it pops.  quote=newcoin]I'm hoping for the establishment of an

[newcoin]

A take-out is certainly a possibility over the next year. Tremendous tax advantages to whomever takes us out.

[perstrudent]

The issue with MEG is that they are generating so much fcf that 10% NCIB is going to be complete way before MArch when they can renew it again..this leaves MEG with either a SIB..or divy/special divy option. Nuttall is major shareholder of MEG and talks to board memebers regularly...He is very adament that wants NCIB, then SIB.....and then a special divy...in that order. MEG should be hitting

[Fuzman5902]

The Debt has either become to exspensive or the sellers have dried up. If meg sticks to their plan of 75/25 allocation strategy @ these prices your looking @ late Oct early Nov to reach 2nd debt level, let's not forget they still had 400m in debt to payoff. Regards Fuz

[Volkomm]

Couple tidbits for you guys here. The mark to market discount for pre-paying the notes has likely diminished. Also, many of their notes are not callable until April '23 now. You will likely see substantial cash hoarding and big lump payments in the future. The revenue you're seeing for '23 is because the Christina Lake assets moves into post-payout status early in the year, meaning

[Fuzman5902]

These numbers came out about a year ago. Somebody needs a grade 5 math refresher course. Assuming WTI averages $115 next year expect C5+ to be in 650M per Quarter range, purchased product slightly over 200M & then of course royalties which will be in the $20 per barrel range @ full payout.  If the differential narrows back into the $15 range with better USGC pricing FCF should come