Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

Alternate Symbol(s): MEGEF

MEG Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company focused on in-situ thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca oil region of Alberta, Canada. The Company is engaged in the development of enhanced oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods to improve the economic recovery of oil. It transports and sells thermal oil (AWB) to customers throughout... see more

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MEG Energy Corp > TPH: MEG Energy BOP FELL 6,000 bbls/d In SEPTEMBER 2024 !

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Post by ztransforms173 on Dec 24, 2024 12:25pm

TPH: MEG Energy BOP FELL 6,000 bbls/d In SEPTEMBER 2024 !

- it is NOT like MEG to SUFFER BOP LOSS in the month of September

- usually, the BOP for the months od September, October, November and December are ABOVE ANNUAL BOP AVERAGES

^^^

TPH Energy Provides Q4 Production Estimates for Oil Sands Companies

MT Newswires - Dec 24, 2024 11:23 AM EST

11:23 AM EST, 12/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- TPH Energy Resources provided Tuesday fourth-quarter production estimates for oil sands companies.

TPH estimates Cenovus' combined (Foster Creek & Christina Lake) FCCL volumes averaged about 454,000 barrels per day (mbpd) in November for a quarterly average of 451 mbpd, compared to TPH's modeled 443 mbpd for the fourth quarter, with Foster Creek up 10mbpd m/m to an estimated 200mbpd for a 195mbpd Q4 2024 average (TPH estimated Q4'24 197mbpd). Christina Lake volumes at 254mbpd were down an estimated 3mbpd m/m for a Q4'24 avg. of 255mbpd (TPHe Q4'24 246mbpd).

Production at Sunrise held flat month over month in November at 53mbpd (Q4 2024 average 53mbpd vs. TPH estimate 60mbpd), while Lloyd volumes sat at near 103mbpd in November with a Quarter To Date average of about 105mbpd (TPHe 110mbpd Q4'24).

Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)'s Cold Lake volumes were up 3 mbpd month over month in November to an estimated 163 mbpd for a fourth-quarter average of 162 mbpd, compared to TPH's projection of 166 mbpd.

Production at Suncor's Firebag operation was down about 4 mbpd to 247 mbpd for a fourth quarter average of 249 mbpd, compared to TPH's estimate of 242mbpd, while volumes at MacKay River were up near 3mbpd m/m to 36mbpd (Q4 2024 average 35mbpd, TPH estimate 35mbpd Q4'24).

According to TPH, CNQ's Kirby projects fell about 2mbpd month over month to 62mbpd (Q4'24 avg. 63mbpd, TPH estimate 67mbpd Q4'24), while Primrose Wolf Lake rose 13mbpd m/m at near 83mbpd -- Q4'24 avg. of about 77mbpd. Lastly, Jackfish volumes increased about 1mbpd m/m to 122mbpd for a Q4'24 avg. of 121mbpd (TPH estimate 115mbpd for Q4'24).

For MEG, the company's September volumes fell 6 mbpd month over month to an estimated 95 mbpd for a fourth quarter average of 98 mbpd, compared to TPH's estimate of 104.5 mbpd for the quarter.

Price: 73.88, Change: +0.82, Percent Change: +1.12

***

BOP (bbls/d):

Q1/2024: 104,088

Q2/2024: 100,531

Q3/2024: 103,298

Summary of 2024 Guidance Bitumen production
- annual average:

102,000 to 108,000 bbls/d

- assume MINIMUM BOP GUIDANCE:

4 * 102,000 = 408,000

408,000 - 104,088 - 100,531 - 103,298 = 100.083

Q4/2024 FORECAST MIN BOP GUIDANCE:

100,083 bbls/d

- so IF TPH is RIGHT than MEG will MISS Q4/2024 BOP by 2,000+ bbls/d

z173