Marathon Gold Corp T.MOZ

At this moment...

[zack50]

we have never been closer to the FED's EA approval.

[theCurse]

It would seem you are definitely onto something.  Would seem continuing upward strength must be based on that. 2 or 3 (if one can count "anonymous") continue to buy in good chunks. tC

[brianjames]

Closed on the high for the day.......does that bode well for next week, or will we have another  speed bump in the road? Anyway.....nice run from $1.12 to $2.04......80% plus return for those that bought at the low. BJ

[NineLives]

Lightened some load at $2. Metalhead you gotta have faith in your calls!! You're on the wrong side of the trades. Your initial call was correct don't let the nasty brain left vs right screw you over. Not much left but GIC's and Gold right now everthing else aside from oil companies gouging the working class is fleeting and fancy free.

[metalhead666]

Nope...I'm correct.  The NPV of Marathon is 600 million...the market cap with this latest rally is getting close. It's no longer a steal and an argument could be made that it's close to fair value.  The permit will be good news, the feasibility study will be a good read but don't forget how much dilution is coming.   Inflation is entrenched and the FED is going

[Ridgeback]

Both SKE and MOZ are in my books. In my opinion I expect Marathon to move higher in comparison to SKE percentage targets. So in the past 12 months MOZ went from about $1.15 to $2.00. SKE went from $13.80-$7,20 ( Note there was a stock split 10-1) prior to these numbers and down substantialy from the split event.  New SKE shareholder stand to gain the most with the lower entry points. MOZ

[metalhead666]

All good points and both are exceptional projects. What you have to consider is the downside risks. Central banks are raising rates at the fastest pace since the year I was born...1955.  The US in particular. Many emerging markets as well as China are in deep doo doo and the flow of money into US based assets will continue sending the US $ even higher.  That's kryptonite for gold. If

[Ridgeback]

All Very Good Points. I have to take into account MOZ is one of the few companies in Canada in a safe area that may or will have full permits shortly. That's a bonus along with the growing resources we see in new pits. As for what the Feds will do both sides of the border will this is all in flux at the moment and I doubt anyone can predict where the chips will fall? Higher rates look

[metalhead666]

Well neither of us has a crystal ball unfortunately but it just seems that there are too many risks to bet heavily on anything.  I do certainly think that there is some upward limit to rate hikes before something breaks and when it breaks they will be quick to resort to more QE. Only problem is that the point of breakage could be double where FED funds are now and a number of months away. In

[Angelique01]

We get the updated FS in Q4.  Will show higher cap ex and operational costs but will also reflect increased mine life, higher production profile and increased mineral reserves.  The $600M NPV is base case based on $1,500 gold price.  At  $1,750 post tax NPV goes to $868M.  Still hoping Marathon gets bought out before year end somewhere around the $850M mark. Skeena will

[metalhead666]

True but I doubt it will get bought out at NPV. The only way it trades at NPV is in a rip roaring gold miner bull market where people just throw money at it chasing performance. Skeena trades at more of a discount to its NPV now and most likely will pop on the FS next month or some new discoveries with this years drilling. The real problem with these names is the fact they belong to the ETFs that

[JamesLogan]

Angelique: Is your wish of 850 million in US or Canadian dollars?

[Angelique01]

The $850M  remark was in Canadian dollars.

[JamesLogan]

So roughly $3.22 cdn a share? I'd like to see it at least $4 myself.

[metalhead666]

Not going to happen. Getting to NPV is hard enough for a multi asset working mine. MOZ is still a long way from there. .75 of NPV tops. Now if gold were $2500 or $3000 then the math would change significantly and I suspect that will happen once the FED folds but for the near term I think this is all it's worth. 

[metalhead666]

That $850 may well be accurate but I doubt anyone is going to pay 100% of NPV for a mine without a mill. I'd argue that the current price is the best offer anyone would make so I don't see anything but the smallest of premiums if someone were to bid tomorrow for it.  If it traded at 60% or even 75% of your NPV number there isn't a whole lot of upside left from here. Add in the

[Angelique01]

Lets wait and see what the new updated FS shows in terms of financial metrics (updated NPV).  Clearly we are in a period (cycle) of falling gold prices given FED battle with inflation which is defintely a headwind but I don't see majors waiting too long before making a move on MOZ.  Of course the buyout price we get will always be less that what we think it should be. In my 50 years

[metalhead666]

Same here...I owned Island Gold that Alamos bought for nothing....Atlantic Gold, Fosterville and some others..Battle Mountain (the former Rubicon)  none of them were sold for what I thought they were worth. Marathon would be a good asset but I don't think anyone would pay more than the current price for it. 

[theCurse]

There is no "clearly" when it comes to POG.  I tend to be more with Ridge with being contrarian.  at the very least, that general thinking is already baked into gold prices.  if you're 70+ years right now, i sure don't know what you are doing investing in golds still.  just like gambling?  Even at my ~55 yrs it starts to get silly.   However, i

[metalhead666]

1. I haven't changed my big picture thesis whatsoever.  The FED will continue to hike until something breaks...they will then resort to the old playbook...the $ will fall and gold will rip higher 2. I've done this for 40 years 3. I don't lie 4. I am adaptable and modify my battle tactics even if my overall strategy remains the same 5. I am unchanged on the year with my

[Angelique01]

The unexpected happening is always a constant but at least for me gold clearly does appear to be in decline in the near term.  A .75 FED increase in Sept followed by another 1.00 increase before year end will get the rate close to 4%.  Hard to imagine this not having a positive impact on the USD and conversely negative for gold.   I was actualy thinking this was the contrarian

[NineLives]

Angel - good post. Remember the Clinton presidency, 1993-2000 or there abouts. Avg interest rates 7 to 8% yet stock markets did well and following the recession on the east coast - Boston etc the economy boomed for most of that period. just shows high interest rates are not always a bad thing. Allows savers to save and keeps prices in check. And no silly QE back then.

[metalhead666]

Didn't have a fraction of the debt then as now and that makes all the difference

[Ridgeback]

Angel. I will be contrary and say the AU price moves or stays in this 17-18 range regardless of what the Feds do in Canada or USA. Too many things are in flux changing the day to day outlook and like the barometer we are hitting lows and highs and for AU projects like MOZ I see blue sky. As far as safe haven GIC I did take one cashable anytime, 3.5% one year just to keep some cash handy in case

[theCurse]

I hope you are completely wrong about this.  I think within the last year or so, a takeover has not been possible with the pending EA decision.  Too much risk.  Assuming MOZ gets over that hurdle, i believe it would be the most reasonable time to expect a takeover.  I certainly have ZERO interest in watching an explorer become a miner....at least not as a shareholder!  My

[Ridgeback]

I hope you are completely wrong about this.  I think within the last year or so, a takeover has not been possible with the pending EA decision.  Too much risk.  Assuming MOZ gets over that hurdle, i believe it would be the most reasonable time to expect a takeover.  I certainly have ZERO interest in watching an explorer become a miner....at least not as a shareholder!  My

[prospector2014]

From your 50 yr.of gold investing experience can you tell me why price of Gold when down instead of up in an inflationary market / semi recession! 

[metalhead666]

There's no simple answer but mostly it's because of the strong dollar. There's also been competition from $hitcoin which never existed before....and the Robinhood gang who love worthless tech more than old fart gold