Marathon Gold Corp T.MOZ

TD UPDATE

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Corporate Update Aug 17

Event In this brief note, we provide a summary of Marathon's recent events and our outlook for the company.

Impact: NEUTRAL Recall, in early August, Marathon provided an update on construction progress (see Flash Note) at its Valentine Gold Project (100%) located in central Newfoundland and, last week, it released its Q2/23 financial results. As of June 30, the overall project was 35% complete and construction was 15% complete. First gold at Valentine is currently anticipated by the company in Q1/25 (TD: Q2/25).

Project construction costs incurred from November 1, 2022 to the end of June 2023 were $113mm. This excludes sunk costs of $71mm incurred before October 2022.

As of June 30, the project's cost to completion stands at ~$391mm (+$40.5mm increase from the original December 2022 Feasibility Study cost-to-complete estimate of $463mm).

As at June 30, Marathon reported a cash balance (unrestricted) of ~$130mm. In July, the company closed a $6.9mm flow-through financing. The company also has ~$248mm of restricted cash ($243.5mm held within the Debt Proceeds Account (DPA), with releases subject to certain covenants). The company has fully drawn its US$225mm Credit Facility (transferred to the DPA). At June 30, there was ~US$175mm in advances remaining in the DPA.

Regarding permitting, the Valentine Gold Project was released from the Environmental Assessment (EA) process, provincially in March 2022 and federally in August 2022. The addition of the Berry Complex is subject to further EA requirements (the company estimates completion in 2024). Based on the 2022 FS, mining at Berry is currently scheduled for Q2/25.

We have updated our model to reflect the company's Q2/23 financial results and marked-to-market our modelled equity financing assumption. Net of these and other minor changes, our corporate NAV5% has decreased to $1.59/share (from $1.72/share).

Our target price has decreased to $1.45 (from $1.55) on our lower NAV estimate.

TD Investment Conclusion We expect the stock to rerate higher as it continues to advance and de-risk the project. We are maintaining our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

[Inthepeg]

No credibility with TD (or any of the others) on May 22 2022 they issued $3.50 target. Should not have been any negative surprises for them between then and now including inflation & pog given they were part of the group that Manson turned too to sell MOZ down the river with $1.10 financing. As hard as it is MOZ is on the shelf for another 24 months.

[Inthepeg]

No credibility with TD (or any of the others) on May 22 2022 they issued $3.50 target. Should not have been any negative surprises for them between then and now including inflation @ pog given they were part of the group that Manson turned too to sell MOZ down the river with $1.10 financing. As hard as it is MOZ is on the shelf for another 24 months.

[Ridgeback]

These guys,lady I call them Penguins. Some have good in depth reports like RBC and independant Taylor Dart , Seeking Alpha, which I won't include Mr Dart. with the banking crowd since he gets more to the point pardon the pun. Bottom line these bank analyst don't have a crystal ball and only report on the moment in time and these far out projections are often wrong. Here's a good one

[theCurse]

Never understood why you called them penguins.  because they wear suits? do they like fish, walk funny, swim well?  These minor nuances bother me - not sure why. I have no doubt you are a nice guy but I have no idea why you continue on with this as you do.  So many good books to be read, fish to be caught, old timers hockey to be played, etc. This is a rotten fish.  Fish rots

[Ridgeback]

Comparing Analysts To Penguins. So funny! They all wear nice suits. When the wind blows hot, they all face the same direction. When the wind blows cold they simultaneously turn in the opposite direction with nbegativce outlook. They migrate from season to season tasting the catch of the day.  A few that don't and they jump in the ocean get eaten by sharks. Most often they all run the

[theCurse]

lol Well, i am glad to see there is more to your pengin analogy than just suits! tC

[Ridgeback]

Curse your the Best ;) Let's just see what the next two weeks offer in Au potential. Been a hard day family may loose home in Kelowna with fires on the West side. Me in Ontario soaking in what they need out west. We appear to be punished no matter where we are on this puney globe?

[DaveinNL8]

While I do have a certain appreciation for penguins, my go to stock price predictor is the pangolin. They may not have all the moves and the tricks of the penguins, but they are easily one of the weirdest looking mamals on earth and they have made me millions. Indian-pangolin-by-Ansar-Khan-Creative-Commons.jpg (2126×1418) (christineelder.com)

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TSE:MOZ Marathon Gold Buy $1 -23.84% Maintained 4 Days ago