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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum MERUS LABS INTERNATIONAL INC T.MSL

"Merus Labs International Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company acquires and licenses novel pharmaceutical products."

TSX:MSL - Post Discussion

View:
Post by Craigbad on Sep 11, 2015 4:19pm

Peter hodson

Further evidence of share price decline, do not add at these levels, unbiased opinion from top analyst

5i Research Answer:

We think MSL is OK, just expensive. Insiders own 7% and it is growing nicely. It does have a fair amount of debt, which adds risks.

Growth was decent though in its last quarter, with sales up 32% and EBITDA up 65%. The pipeline looks good and the company reaffirmed guidance. With less than $10 mm in sales in the quarter, though, investors are looking at its $214 million market cap and are deciding it is too expensive. We think it has potential, looks better after the drop, and would hold a position but not add to one. 

Comment by Backwardblade on Sep 11, 2015 5:30pm
I failed to get into this last winter.  Been watcing this steadily decline.  The shelf prospectus got my eye and hopes up.  But the 10 mi in revenue vs Mkt cap just rubs wrong with that prospectus on the shelf.  I grant that any future aquisition can always be accretive but how much?  An aquisition isn't always dilutive, but with only 10 mill in rev, it would be hard ...more  
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 11, 2015 6:35pm
Keep an eye on it Backwardblade. I'm hearing rumors of a short attack next week so we may see a 25% rundown which will make it interesting. It is best to stand clear and watch it shakeout. Trend is still down, we are not far from stoplosses and some short pressure may create a decent entry point. $1.65 seem imminent but if it overshoots, all the better.
Comment by peter75 on Sep 11, 2015 7:26pm
Blade you are full of sh It i checked your history and you never commented on Msl ever yet you know it all are you also Craigbad  loser
Comment by Backwardblade on Sep 11, 2015 8:12pm
Youre right, I have never commented on it before.  You would think that a person with money in, would like to hear why another investor is presently NOT willing to buy.  I would like to hear your reasons why I should invest/trade this stock.  I did say that I was interested, but just not at this price.  I explained why.   Just shopping my friend.   My wife would ...more  
Comment by peter75 on Sep 11, 2015 8:51pm
Look at the institutional ownership and also the funds holding this stock had a bought offering in May at  3.05 and than had the ten percent option exercised one morning we will wake up and it will be at 3.00 on it s way to 4.00 the management is very strong, I will wait full disclosure I also own Gud, and a lot of crh health care stocks are a great investment 
Comment by peter75 on Sep 11, 2015 8:53pm
Btw they are cash flow positive q on q they have 47 million in cash and Bay Street loves em ignore the retail investors bailing they never make money
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 11, 2015 9:37pm
I think you have it backwards Peter, baystreet almost always makes money, its what they do. They invest without emotion and have little patience for small caps who make mistakes or miss quarters as they make up meaningless weightings in their portfolios and they will indiscriminately dump them if they might make them look bad when going over performance with their clients. There are many recent ...more  
Comment by Backwardblade on Sep 11, 2015 11:23pm
All very good points, and ones that I often follow.  I am a bit of a contrarian (And I have paid for it on occasion)  and following the herd is most often the smart play.  Hence my interest in the sector.  To whit, I own a bunch of GILD.  Its the only Health/Biotech I own.  With the FX, I would like to compound my gains and move some of it to a canadian health company ...more  
Comment by peter75 on Sep 12, 2015 9:32am
At 3.00 institutional holders were adding large to their positions institutional players are long term players, they don't sell cause the market moves against them for a time you can't compare gild to this,as gild is a twenty year old co that was a 1.00 stock at one time now it's 109.00 if you are from the USA you should back up the truck on this and crh
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 12, 2015 11:36am
With all due respect Peter, funds may own a large % of merus by market cap but a very small % of an actual weighting in their fund. They have no problem dumping a losing position or one that will make them look bad with any management stumble. They are most likely to exit or buy the cheaper prospectus to protect a clients capital interest as that is their duty and job. Most positions are less than ...more  
Comment by curiousbuild on Sep 14, 2015 9:10am
Here is your hero Hodson, craig..  always do your own dd before shorting or investing in any stock FP's Hodson admits to bad calls with Sprott, others 2015-09-14 08:58 ET - In the News Also In the News (C-DEJ) Dejour Energy Inc Also In the News (C-TIM) Timminco Ltd The Financial Post reports in its Saturday edition that every investor makes mistakes. The Post's Peter Hodson ...more  
Comment by lscfa on Sep 12, 2015 12:23am
Hey deceptive scumbag. Provide the date and link of the 5I quote. For all we know he said that when MSL was at its 52 week high of $3.50......
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 12, 2015 4:02am
I would recommend subscribing to 5i reasearch Iscfa, unbiased opinions for only $139 per year and you can access a wealth of information. As for for the timng, the market cap in the answer looks similar to todays does it not? A little more thinking and a little less lashing out would be nice.
Comment by peter75 on Sep 12, 2015 9:26am
I wish some one could give the web site for his comments seems it isn't on stockchase
Comment by lscfa on Sep 12, 2015 10:05am
Merus is the cheapest pharma out there. Mgmt reaffirmed guidance of ebitda of $35 million. So mkt cap is only 6x ebitda. Hudson also uses the wrong revenue number like the rest of the market.  "Revenues from Sintrom during the three months ended June 30, 2015 were $2,802,184.  During the current period, the Company recorded Sintrom revenues in the statements of ...more  
Comment by peter75 on Sep 12, 2015 10:50am
Well said , not to mention the fx will be in there favour by over a million
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 12, 2015 11:20am
I think the ebitda is important in alot of cases Iscfa BUT the market is telling you something and its your choice whether to listen or not. Msl needs to prove themselves by getting back on track with a good quarter or two as any small cap needs to after a stumble. Maybe the market is looking at the negative ebit, the debt load, the seven figure interest burden or the large intagible asset on the ...more  
Comment by lscfa on Sep 12, 2015 5:48pm
Your dilution argument is lame basher bs. They will only make acquisitions if they are ACRRETIVE....in other words, the target must increase the revenue, ebitda, and net income on a per share basis after including the increase in shares issued......
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 12, 2015 6:05pm
Think before you lash out Iscfa. If they need to raise $60,000,000 it would be 20,000,000 shares if the the sp was $3.00 or it will be 40,000,000 shares at $1.50 which is TWICE as dilutive. Seeing as the price is being walked down its closer to $1.50 than $3.00. The people who bought at $3.00 would be pissed at a cheaper raise unless they are selling to buy the cheap paper. Why do you think the sp ...more  
Comment by lscfa on Sep 12, 2015 6:18pm
You are a bloody moron. If MSL's current price does not allow them to make an ACCRETIVE acquisition, they won't. A shelf prospectus is good for 2 years, you schmuck.....
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