NAL Energy Corporation T.NAE

this one has performed like real...

[themangokid]

...sh1t.  my expectations are tempered with the knowledge that the markets have been crappy, but even so, nae has disappointed. 

I gotta go over their numbers again and see if there is anything I missed,  I know their credit facilities are are more than 50% tapped but their is still plenty of room there. 

I'm wondering if the same shorts who attacked DAY are now picking on Nae.

disclosure:  I have an initial position in the $8.30's

[Paralyzer]

Analysts need to be fired ...Most times then not they have their own agenda...Do the opposite and hold and you will be fine...NAE is oversold and will rebound...imo...Hang tight...CheersParalyzer

[rbeede]

Anal Cyst's is what they are, and as far as I'm concerned they have gone the way of the horse and buggy days and good riddance!! The same go's for account advisors all they know is they want to make your money their money, there is more info out  in the world for us on our own via the internet than we can possibly consume. As long as they keep paying a dividend like this I will

[DMR001]

"I'm wondering if the same shorts who attacked DAY are now picking on Nae."Have a look at this web site: https://www.dataexplorers.com/products/dataJust enter the ticker symbol and click search.This site reports on borrowed shares. If you look at Daylight Energy there was a significant rise in borrowed shares just around (I am thinking just after) the ex-dividend date in September

[Al42]

You are right...looks like the same pattern here.https://stage.walletpop.ca/company/nal-energy-corporation/nae/tor/short-interest

[themangokid]

thats an interesting tool that site offers.alot of the other former oil/gas trusts (cpg, pgf, bte) show a similar pattern as nae.  my only other guess is that a fund manager is liquidating a portion or all of his position.  I'm gonna enroll in the DRIP to start taking advantage of what I hope are trough prices.good luck.

[terroir]

South of $7 NAE is golden, even with a cut from 7 cents to 5 cents. Yield would still be close to 9%, even at yesterdays close, 5 cents would yield well into 8%.The short sellers are, IMO, playing the impact of a dividend reduction. But I am thinking it is already priced in.Perhaps a bigger issue is the continued weakness in the price of Nat Gas. This has potentially offset the benefit of higher

[themangokid]

hey, terr.  you really tihnk a divy cut is in store?  The payout ratio, as of Q3 is below what it was last year at Q3.  Cutting the divy rate from 7 to 5 isn't really going to be saving alot of money to fund production growth, either.I guess a cut is always a possibility but if they cant make it work with oil at $95 when else are they gonna make it work, assuming that nat gas is

[strapper]

I don't think they are going to cut their dividend.  Their FFO was up and oil is near 100.  I think too many people in North Amer are use to having this brent wti spread for too long.  With the seaway pipe and keystone coming this spread is going to narrow and imo oil stays between 95-105.  If Israel bombs Iran.... too the moon Alice.I do think their is someone keeping this

[terroir]

I have added to my position. Seems like the market is concerned about the dividend and about the convertible debentures due in 2012. The debentures are not immaterial and could cause some dilution if paid in shares. Nat Bank assumed that they would be paid cash from bank line putting more pressure on liquidity, but this would seem the worst case scenario, with roll-over or other long term debt

[themangokid]

isn't the principal outstanding on the convertable debentures maturing august, 2012, 80 million?  a div cut of 2 cents would potentially save 30 million a month.  wow, is that right?  it seems like an awful lot.  even so, I think its sending a dangerous message to the markets if nae cuts their divy when oil is above $95+.  I mean, if that happens the

[MrAnderson]

A divy cut of .02 is 3,000,000 savings per month based on about 150,000,000 shares out.

[terroir]

HiThe amount for 2012 is $80mil, with another $112 million in 2014.The cut to 5 cents would save $3 million per month, or $36 million a year. Still not insignificant, and over time sure to improve the balance sheet.However you are right about cash flow increasing through production, oil prices, and US conversion. On balance I am not concerned about NAL. Now my investments in Manulife and

[themangokid]

hey, guys. yeah, i stuck in there an extra zero. thanks for catching my mistake. i should have 2ble checked.  I was going over some of the numbers tonight from cibc's november nae report and decided I may add a bit to my position if nal approaches $7.  I dont know how much upside oil has from $100 but I think an oil retreat into the low-mid 90s could possibly thwart any nae

[terroir]

HiWhat does CIBC say about the balance sheet and the sustainability of the dividend etc?ThanksTerrPS I got here via Daylight, reinvesting a portion of the sale of holding; NAL starts to feel similar to Daylight did during August and September when I more than doubled down by buying boat loads of calls. Nal is currently yielding 12% plus; a 30% cut in dividend to 5 cents brings yield to 8.4%, more

[themangokid]

cibc loves it.  while they reduced their price target, in early november, from $14 to $13, they have named it as their top pick for yield focused investors.- they have a nav of $15.36 on it- "nal has a reasonable balance sheet, with an estimated total debt to cashflow ratio of 2.3x (versus the group average of 2.1x; with 61% of its 550 million credit facility currently drawn (versus

[terroir]

Thanks for the CIBC post, I have the NBC review for what its worth. They really dissapointed me as they have lowered target and downgraded from outperform to perform after reaffirming target and rating after the latest earnings result. The only thing that has changed since then is further strength in energy prices and a decrease in NAL share price. It sure looks like it was the stock price move

[themangokid]

one more neat thing on the november cibc report is that it shows all of nae's peers and arranges them according to how close they are trading to their NAV.  On average these companies trade at 79% of their NAV (keep in mind this was in early november).  the companies that traded at the biggest discount to their nav are petrobakken (trading at 38% of its nav), perpetual (41% of

[bigbab]

Mangokid......  thoughts on VRO energy ....??  ...I have bought at 2.80/2.50  and today at 2.19 ..... I just don't get it,hope I'm not missing a serious flaw. I know there balance sheet is in need of some trimming (debt) ...but they have some serious gassy assets that have long term value...., and cash flow in oil to stem the tide...   maybe I shoulda bought NAE I&

[bigbab]

just checked the report.....  VRO trading at .32% risked NAV vs 75% industry avg      CORE NAV .62% vs 150% industry avg....dont get it .....  bleeding $$$$

[terroir]

Hey Mango,PetroBakken has shown surprising strength relative to NAL and others over the past few weeks. I had bought it in my initial buys after exiting DAY shares, however I got nervous about their convertible debentures due in early 2013, from what I recall they would mean a substantial dilution if paid by shares and the balance sheet looks pretty weak - so I sold, made a nice profit, but it is

[themangokid]

Hey, Terroir,Petrobakken is my attempt at a home run.  it definately has its risks but its worth a shot down where I got it, I think.  A non-core asset sale could take care of the funds for the convertable debenture but who knows what management will do.I like PennWest alot.  In the $13s a few months ago was a gift. I was a little slow and picked up a little in the high $15s

[themangokid]

hey, bigbab.not really familiar with vro. Eric Nuttall was on marketcall tonight, yesterday and he didn't seem too thrilled about it.  go to the bnn site and see what nuttall had to say about it.  maybe its helpful.good luck with it.

[terroir]

Hey MangoGood luck with Petrobakken.Took another look at Crescent Point, realized my spreadsheet had the dividend as quarterly, correcting that made a big difference LOL. Bought in today, thanks.Averaged down on NAE as well. Any time you want to talk options just IM me.Terr