Post by
blondeBond on Nov 16, 2015 1:04am
from Scotia Daily Edge
Q3 - Production and cash flow in line. Third quarter production of 20,455 boe/d was in line with our estimate of 19,938 boe/d, while cash flow per share of $0.33 was in line with our estimate of $0.31.
Hedge book protects balance sheet and provides financial flexibility and cash flow certainty. Northern Blizzard has oil hedges in place that cover 4,000 bbl/d for the remainder of the year at $77.54/bbl. As for 2016, hedges in place lock in 11,500 bbl/d of production at $79.50/bbl.
2015 guidance updated and 2016 guidance announced. Northern Blizzard is reducing its previously announced 2015 capital budget of $86M to $80M. The company still expects to achieve its 2015 production guidance within 2%. The 2016 capital budget is set at $100M on average production of 20,000 boe/d. We view this as conservative, and our estimates reflect a modestly higher level.
Clean balance sheet may position NBZ for acquisitions. Management has noted that in today's market, growth through corporate and/or asset deals is preferable to green-field projects and that the board of directors is supportive of this view.
We have maintained our SP rating and $7.50 one-year target price.