Post by
TonyDj on Oct 22, 2016 7:28pm
NBZ in the Sweet Spot.Time to start ramping up.
$51 US WTI is the new $70 for Northern as the metrics work even better. Foreign exchange with Canadian dollar down 25% compared to USD dollar as well as efficiencies made and lower cost for energy services sector -this should turn out to be an excellent quarter to finish off the year end in a really good position. They still have their Hedges on at 79.00 till the end of the year.
Comment by
ppp on Oct 22, 2016 11:16pm
Don't use light oil prices they are a heavy oil producer. Western Canada Select WCS is what they get.or lower depending on the grade. Price at the moment is just over 48 can.
Comment by
ppp on Oct 22, 2016 11:36pm
What I do like is their decline rates some of the best in the industry. Total cost to produce a bbl of oil 29.85 c, includes production, trans ,royalities, Gand A and finance costs. not bad. Reserve life very good. No bank debt all bonds. What I don't like is a poor LMR number
Comment by
tvstock on Oct 23, 2016 2:12am
That number is a little bit lower than the hot cardinal energy according to my calculation. Cardinal also get WCS pricing. I suppose these 2 should have approx the same EV/BOED for that reason. Applying that metric and you see a huge under-valuation.
Comment by
askQuestions1 on Oct 23, 2016 10:20am
NBZ LMR is actually very good. 99% of their production is in Saskatchewan and LMR there is 3.5. The LMR in Alberta is based on only a few wells so it's practically meaningless.
Comment by
ppp on Oct 23, 2016 11:29am
Thanks for the info. Could you post the link for the Sask LMR.
Comment by
askQuestions1 on Oct 24, 2016 9:16am
This is posted on the government website. NBZ LMR is 3.74 which is very good. This company will not go out of business, and will print money when oil goes higher ($60+) which is a virtual certainty. If Canada ever built any pipelines the discount would drop and these stocks would be worth a lot more. https://publications.gov.sk.ca/documents/310/90045-LLR%20Summary%20(September%2028,%202016).pdf
Comment by
tvstock on Oct 24, 2016 11:18am
It's amazing to see so many knowledgable NBZ investors. Dividend cut fear is still the major issue here.