Post by
ocean112 on Aug 16, 2015 11:03pm
NLN Price Target
Assuming valuation metrics from M partners are accurate (from their June 25th, 2015 report)... We believe NLN would be an attractive target for a buyer looking to acquire a mature digital video broadcaster, says Thompson. Previous acquisitions in the broader video broadcasting and video technology industry (Figure 3) support valuation metrics of 4.0x EV/LTM Sales or 12.4x EV/LTM EBITDA. If we take 4x EV/LTM sales as accurate - doing the math Q1 - 21.7M Q2 - 22.7M Q3 - 22 M (conservative estimate) Q4 - 22 M (conservative estimate) Assume zero revenue growth.... FY 2015 = $88,400,000 Loss of NHL Contract Low Range - 20% of revenue High Range - 12% of revenue Forecast 2016 Revenue Low Range = $88,400,000 x .80 = $70,720,000 High Range = $88,400,000 x .88 = $77,792,000 Using 4x EV/LTM sales ratio High Price Target = $1.17 Low Price Target = $1.05 (Remember assuming ZERO growth)....assuming they make up the NHL contract with other sales...price target becomes $1.34....assuming growth exceeds the loss of NHL - we're back to $1.5 to $1.7. do your own due diligence....but from current levels - using the no growth to NHL recovery scenario - this is a 50% to 97% gain.