Post by
gibbonsj on Aug 25, 2015 11:57am
Ryan84, a bit of my thesis
I bought a nice sized position 18 months or so ago at .52 so I know the history of what moved the stock. In part it was the big name client, namely the NHL seen as the ultimate anchor that lent credibility to a speculative investment but to the largest part it was comparisons made to Netflix. It was this comparison that immediately brought NLN into the spotlight and after which caused sp to rise on almost all news however, all along earnings and margins have been thin. This was overlooked because of the big name anchor. The mantra was "hot sector, big clients". Other than the loss of the NHL this has not changed but “big client” has been replaced with “apply time” for the sector to grow into what experts say it will be. In my mind the path to success has changed from what "could be" to fact based valuation. I was doubtful of NLN reaching the lofty values promoters called for because despite the big name clients revenue was not what I thought it should be for such a valuable service. It made me think there was a very low ceiling to what NLN could ask for their services before other arrangements were made. The now exclusive focus on College and less than mainstream sports may make this ceiling all that much more concerning BUT its a very big world and with the likes of soccer in the mix which dwarfs NHL, there is a chance that things will improve in the coming year or two provided big name groups like soccer don’t do what the NHL did which was to move to bigger partners and spin off for their share of a billion dollars. The bigger the client the greater the chance of this happening and then what is stopping them from competing with NLN which I feel is a certainty with the new NHL partnership. What the spin off looks like in terms of syndication with major networks will be revealed, if they decide to go after NLN’s market things could get tough.