Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat Gas Weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, May 8, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 38 cents from $1.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.01/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the June 2024 NYMEX contract increased 25.5 cents, from $1.932/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.187/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging June 2024 through May 2025 futures contracts rose 8.7 cents to $2.967/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at all major pricing hubs except for the Waha Hub this report week (Wednesday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 8), mostly in line with the Henry Hub. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $2.14 at the Waha Hub to an increase of 89 cents at Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) Citygate.
  • In the Northeast, at the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up 30 cents from $1.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.73/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 25 cents from $1.39/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.64/MMBtu yesterday. Warmer weather in the Northeast this report week resulted in fewer heating degree days (HDD) compared with last week. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 55°F, resulting in 68 HDDs, 33 fewer HDDs than last week and 3 fewer than normal. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area averaged 63°F, resulting in 29 HDDs, 11 fewer than last week. Natural gas consumption in the Northeast decreased 12% (2.0 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, driven by a 27% decrease (1.4 Bcf/d) in the residential and commercial sector. 
  • In the Southeast, at the FGT Citygate, which delivers natural gas into Florida, the price rose 89 cents from $2.06/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.95/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Tampa Area averaged 82°F this report week, 4°F higher than last week, which resulted in 117 cooling degree days (CDD), 27 more CDDs than last week, and 28 more than normal. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in the Southeast increased 13% (1.3 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, to meet increased air-conditioning demand. In addition, Williams, operator of the Transco pipeline, reported maintenance at Compressor Station 60 in East Feliciana County, Louisiana, from May 6 through May 12, reducing available eastbound operational capacity by approximately 0.8 Bcf/d. 
  • Prices on the West Coast rose this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 23 cents, up from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.47/MMBtu yesterday. In the Sacramento Area, temperatures averaged 60°F, resulting in 36 HDDs, 12 more HDDs than last week and 15 more than normal. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 22 cents from $1.48/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.70/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, averaged 63°F this report week, resulting in 14 HDDs, a decrease of 1 HDD from last week. The Riverside Area recorded 0 CDDs this week, 6 fewer than last week and 20 fewer than normal. Natural gas consumption in California increased 5% (0.2 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which was led by a 9% (0.2 Bcf/d) increase in residential and commercial sector consumption. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price rose 25 cents from $1.26/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday. 
  • The price at the Waha Hub, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell $2.14 this report week, from -$0.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$2.31/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub price rose above zero on two days early in the report week but reached an intraweek low of -$4.60/MMBtu on Monday. Various pipeline maintenance events this spring have contributed to prices at the Waha Hub being below zero on the majority of trading days since March 1. Kinder Morgan, operator of the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP), a 2.6 Bcf/d pipeline that delivers natural gas from the Permian Basin to U.S. Gulf Coast markets, reported a reduction in throughput capacity on PHP of approximately 1.1 Bcf/d from Tuesday, May 7, through Friday, May 10. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 16 cents to a weekly average of $10.46/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 70 cents to a weekly average of $9.77/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending May 10, 2023), the prices were $11.28/MMBtu in East Asia and $11.61/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 42 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.79/MMBtu for the week ending May 8. Ethane prices rose 2% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 21%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 16%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 1%. Propane prices decreased 10%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 5% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil increased 2% this week. Normal butane prices fell 9%, isobutane prices rose 2%, and natural gasoline prices fell 7%.

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 98.8 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 6.6% (0.3 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 1.8% (1.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 15.6% (2.3 Bcf/d) week over week, while natural gas consumed for power generation rose 4.0% (1.3 Bcf/d). Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.8% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 0.8% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.3 Bcf/d, or 0.1 Bcf/d higher than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 0.6% (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 12.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 9.5% (0.8 Bcf/d) to 7.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 37.4% (0.9 Bcf/d) to 3.3 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-two LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four from Corpus Christi; three each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport; two from Cameron; and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 79 Bcf departed the United States between May 2 and May 8, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, April 30, the natural gas rig count decreased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 102 rigs. The DJ-Niobrara added one rig, while the Eagle Ford and Permian each dropped one rig, and two rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 7 rigs from a week ago to 499 rigs. The Ardmore Woodford added two rigs and the Granite Wash added one rig. The Cana Woodford and the DJ-Niobrara each dropped one rig, the Eagle Ford dropped two rigs, and six rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 605 rigs, 143 fewer rigs than last year at this time.

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Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 79 Bcf for the week ending May 3, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 81 Bcf and last year's net injections of 71 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,563 Bcf, which is 640 Bcf (33%) more than the five-year average and 444 Bcf (21%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 69.2 Bcf to 107 Bcf, with a median estimate of 84 Bcf.
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