I went back and rewatched the video, also list to Rafi who follows who now classifies juniors as companies producing less than 50,000 boe/day.
NVA is having a strategic planning session in K-country
Their current plan requires the drilling of 40 wells a year and they have more than 1200 location, so they have more than 40 years of inventory.
Reserves will increase significantly next year.
In 2021 they exited the year with 480 million in net debt, down from 598 million of debt in 2020, and NVA is expected to end 2022 with about 200 million in next debt, year end.
By the end of the year they will start buying back 10% of the outstanding shares.
Year end 2022 could look like this 10% less shares, 33% more production, 60% debt reduction, 100 % more cash flow over 2021? Producing roughly 75,000 boe/day.
So whats it going to look like in 2023, remembering that NVA has accelerated their drilling program already
- Well i expect that NVA has the inventory to go to 110,000 boe, so you will likely see a plan to expand to 100,000 - 110,000 over 3 - 5 years.
- I am guessing you will get a dividend starting in January, of 5 cents a month per share to start. Costing about 120 million a year.(Modest to start with)
- You will see them ditching their hedging program.
- My guess they will try to get rid of the bonds as soon as the covenents allow, just to restrictive.
- They may also deploy a special dividend program for excess cash becasue they will be dripping in it.
Disclaimer, whether or what they pay out in dividends really up to the board, hedging i know they view risk management that is a high cost that required when you have to protect the balance sheet because of debt levels, i expect a lot of hedging to go away, Bonds will likely be bought out buy a bank facility, they could really go to zero debt if they wanted.
It should like growth will be incremental 5K chunks with limited large investment in Capital Infastrucutre.
Risks are being bought out by POU, which is not a bad risk, it juct accelerates the share value.
IMHO