Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, April 3, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 42 cents from $1.44 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.86/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the May 2024 NYMEX contract increased 12.3 cents, from $1.718/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.841/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging May 2024 through April 2025 futures contracts climbed 9.1 cents to $2.818/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at all major pricing hubs this report week (Wednesday, March 27, to Wednesday, April 3). Price changes ranged from an increase of 3 cents at the Waha Hub to an increase of 57 cents at the Algonquin Citygate.
  • Natural gas prices in the Northeast rose this report week along with the national trend of rising prices and as colder weather entered the region toward the end of the report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 57 cents from $1.52/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.09/MMBtu yesterday. In the Boston Area, temperatures averaged 46°F this week, which was 9°F higher than the previous report week, leading to 156 heating degree days (HDDs), 60 HDDs fewer than last week and 21 HDDs below normal. Residential and commercial sector consumption declined 26.9% (0.4 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) in New England this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as the milder weather decreased space-heating demand for most days in the report week. Although weekly average temperatures rose compared with last report week, during the end of the report week (April 1–April 3), the average temperature fell to 43°F as colder weather entered the region. The price at the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City rose 42 cents from $1.37/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.80/MMBtu yesterday. 
  • Prices in the Midwest rose this report week as colder weather in the region boosted space-heating demand at the end of the week. The price at the Chicago Citygate rose 55 cents from $1.30/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.85/MMBtu yesterday. Chicago Area temperatures averaged 43°F this report week, up 4°F from last report week, leading to 152 HDDs, 25 HDDs fewer than last report week and 5 HDDs above normal. Temperatures were coldest at the end of the report week, falling from the intraweek average high of 51°F on March 30 to 37°F yesterday, a drop of 14°F over that period. However, higher weekly average temperatures decreased weekly average residential and commercial sector consumption of natural gas by 23% (2.0 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Industrial sector consumption of natural gas fell 6% (0.3 Bcf/d), and electric power sector consumption of natural gas fell 5% (0.1 Bcf/d). 
  • Prices on the West Coast rose this week, in line with the national trend. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California rose 41 cents from $1.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.11/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 22 cents from $2.29/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.51/MMBtu yesterday, the highest price among major U.S. natural gas hubs. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 22 cents from $1.23/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.45/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in all sectors was flat this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as average temperatures were essentially unchanged from the previous report week. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 2 cents to a weekly average of $9.51/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 32 cents to a weekly average of $8.42/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending April 5, 2023), the prices were $12.96/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.96/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 9 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.63/MMBtu for the week ending April 3. Ethane prices rose 4% week over week, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 4%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 8%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane fell 1%. Propane prices remained relatively unchanged, while Brent crude oil prices rose 3%, and the propane discount to crude oil increased by 6%. Isobutane prices rose 4%, while normal butane and natural gasoline prices remained relatively unchanged week over week. 

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) to average 100.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 2.7% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 9.4% (8.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as warmer weather reduced space-heating demand. In the residential and commercial sectors, natural gas consumption declined by 22.2% (7.0 Bcf/d), while consumption for power generation declined by 1.2% (0.4 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 3.1% (0.8 Bcf/d) week over week, and natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 6.2% (0.4 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.5 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d lower than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals fell 3.0% (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week, averaging 12.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana fell 4.1% (0.4 Bcf/d), and deliveries to South Texas were essentially unchanged at 2.8 Bcf/d. Deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-five LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi; and two each from Calcasieu Pass, Cove Point, Elba Island, and Freeport) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 89 Bcf departed the United States between March 28 and April 3, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 26, the natural gas rig count was unchanged at 112 rigs. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 3 rigs to 506 rigs. The DJ-Niobrara dropped one rig, three rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions, and the Permian added one rig. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, decreased by 3 rigs, and now stands at 621 rigs, 134 fewer rigs than last year at this time. 

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Storage

• Net withdrawals from storage totaled 37 Bcf for the week ending March 29, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 1 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 29 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,259 Bcf, which is 633 Bcf (39%) more than the five-year average and 422 Bcf (23%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 36 Bcf to 52 Bcf, with a median estimate of 43 Bcf.
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