Novo Resources Corp T.NVO

MY PEA SEDAR ASSUMPTIONS

[HuberPeter]

Dilution ist the key point. The PEA was calculated to be 20%. In the ramp up phase it is much higher, probable about 50%. 

Fresh ore
According to the mine plan, the main CF is supposed to be between y4 and y6 during the processing of the higher-grade fresh ore. 54% of these resources are inferred. The fresh ore is probably partially acidic and the permit to mine will be submitted soon. Without this permission B.C. is finished anyway. But doesn't make any sense of buying the mill when you are not 100% sure of getting a permit for the vital fresh ore. However, there is just a risk - netherless there is no hurry to assess this risk as permitting decision is not expected withing the next 12 months. Fresh ore will be mined at the end of y2.

Is it a 'common' ramp up problem?
I guess NO. The Millfeed according pea is also planned with 2.1 g/t in y1. And 2 Months processing was still some time. In addition Q.H. stated that turning to CF positive is awaited in the next few months. Obviously that was not the plan if you look on PEA Numbers and operative reality. Q.H. wanted to rock the mill with modest drill data. Plan once went badly in the pants. He now had to row back and starting a big infill program for grade control issues. At 10x10 for measured resources, about 1500-2000 holes are needed. I assume with about 1000 drills.

What will this bring?
Grade and oz outcome are highly uncertain due to nuggets conglomerates. Above all, it will be decisive which whether the high-grade inferred fresh mineralization (250k oz to 3.1 g/t) can be converted into indicated. That explains the particular urgency of starting now. There are big surprises possible, both on the top and an the bottom. We have to wait for the first drill 'assays'. An decreasing mill feed grade is not negative per se - if the take some lower grade between the reefs - due to the mill still has free capcity of approx. 0.4m / t p.a. Of course, a  higher mill feed with higher grade would be desiberable, but in this case they are likely to blend it down to feed the mill over longer LOM. But this looks unlikely. 

My risk profile has changed dramatically.
20% investment - 80% speculation.

DYODD


Peter

[HuberPeter]

Sorry; According to the mine plan, the main Profit respectively netto CF are supposed to be between y4 and y6 during the processing of the higher-grade fresh ore. peter 

[ronreagan]

Peter - thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. Looks to me, if one considers BC only, that Novo will continue to consolidate and maybe even pull back for awhile. Some potential wild cards: KARRATHA gets ramped up sooner than later (looking like a few months for results here maybe). EGINA receives heritage approval sooner than expected (maybe give them an extra point royalty to induce them?)

[HuberPeter]

Think novo is current a market perform as cards are opened. As I mentioned B.C. is vital for novo to finance the other projects. peter 

[BuccaneerBob]

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[HuberPeter]

Okay, some questions of you have finally got me to some further view and DD. With no rational response after  'validating' that most of your doubts are questioned I don't  want to discuss you for the PEA topic which you don't want to read. Read the about 200 side report and then let's do it again. peter

[Popeye82]

You REALLY have it done ? I did it a "Few Times" in my Life(the Last LUM I mean), but cracking "Anything between 150-600 Pages" is something What you don't(can't) do "All 5 Minutes".

[HuberPeter]

I tried to skim overall. As I am no mining expert it's difficult to asses it. Therefore there are some validated authorities to do that. However I tried to understand the red flags and possibilities. Maybe @TxRogers can provide his assumptions  Peter 

[TXRogers]

The PEA by definition is a collection of "assumptions ".  Preliminary ones at that. And that is a fact. I prefer to enjoy the weather and tour about on my bike, while 499 seconds pass by without incident. Tx  

[SplaininToDo]

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[Popeye82]

Thank you for the Post, and (ALL the ! )Work. I gave you "my Judgement" already via 1:1.

[SplaininToDo]

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[SplaininToDo]

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[Fabrix72]

"You can't cure stupid".... 

[Popeye82]

10 Billion % signed. Seems ONE of the Probs here ?

[HuberPeter]

yes that COULD be back door. But this is not the investment case of buying nullagine mine. In addition there is more opportunity to take the Karratha big coarse nuggets nearly the floor to blend it with B.C ore. That's why they want to speed up this possible area. 

[Popeye82]

What is YOUR Track Record, my Best ? With the Most People it "just makes not much Sense" to my Experience, I guess you belongs to them.

[SplaininToDo]

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[Popeye82]

@HuberPeter, that Post, Last Sentence, should add "sooooomewhat Optimism" to your Judgement ?? https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.nvo&postid=33109146