Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Q2

[kavern23]

They must be working on a new investor presentation as no way is even the 2022 guidance remotely accurate.

This is current Quarterly forecast I have based on the timing listed in press release and what I ran June production at.

Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
23.2	24.6	25.8	27.3	25.225

OBE is carrying over a pile of wells from 2021...Q1 2022 can easily be 28-29K

2022 has to be raised if they are still planning on any type of 100M capex in 2022.

Decline rates on new wells wont hit OBE that hared until OBE is over 27K BOE.

[Kramerkarma]

I did a rough fcf on @Kramerkarma1 Twitter. Amazing how much per share vs MEG it is yet look at per share price. Burnsco put out a rbc report of 2.55$/ share fcf meg 2022 I got 2.75- 3.29 with lower debt 90M and 26k boe at .62% liquids. So all things being equal would imply a 10% premium to MEG trading at 8.6$ today. 9.4 at min today.

[kavern23]

Do you think OBE will announce any impairment reversal (Gain) in Q2 or do you think they capture it in Q4 results? I only seen one company do abit of a gain and that was Vermillion...most companies didnt like Cardinal who like OBE took a massive loss on the income statement in a writedown in Q2. I expect CJ will have to do a fairly hefty write up as well soon. I think alot of companies waited

[Hendrick3]

If there is help to our financing efforts, then I would support a write up. Otherwise leave it alone. I would rather have profits of 50 cents per share per quarter than profits of 20 cents per share and a one time big write up that gets forgotten the next day. This stock needs a drum beat of higher earnings and higher FCF, lower debt and stable production to impress investors. If they do decide to

[kavern23]

Be interesting, I would think it is at least 150M and up. I was looking at OBE presentation again, and it is interesting on slide 14, that shows a basket of companies prices on June 14. All of the cardium players are up or near June 14 price IPO 98 vs 1.20 BNE 5.21 vs 5.76 YGR 1.41 vs 1.42 OBE 3.57 vs 3.95 But the other companies in the patch generally are lower right now vs June 14. Crescent

[BackinBlack2021]

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[David02montreal]

what is this, with the co. can report profit ,or one time big write up next quarter an impairment if wti retreats I could use these people to do my taxes a creative imagination who are these accountants or auditors who will sign of this report

[kavern23]

David every company does the same things and the same appoach and model. Whole industry had writedown s during Covid.  All audited. OBE writedown in Q1 of 2020 was 702M just on the cardium properties. I am not suggestingOBE can anywhere near all of that reversed at some point in 2021. I  used 2019 impairment price decks vs ending 2020. OBE still can not reverse alot as the 2019 test

[David02montreal]

HI Kavern23 it's Dave dept reduction good way to go selling assets at what price who will sell it, Monkey's , They should get a lot!!! Of peanuts, value to some, I like obe doesn't sound like it this stock should be 9.00 wrong management. If there would be a dividend the message would be the co. has value keep the stock short seller's be dated create wealth optimize confidence in

[RedDeerMoe42]

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[ariesleaf]

With extra cash OBE should buy back shares to cancel.

[kavern23]

Well the most important thing is to have the drilling rigs drilling this summer.... Yesterday the Nabors rig in Crimson spudded a well so that is the fourth well since Mid June that rig is on. The other  rig in Pembina should be spudding a second well soon.

[claymore55]

Forget buybacks.  Forget dividends.  Focus on debt debt reduction which is by far the best thing to do for OBE'S well being.

[kavern23]

Agreed.   And it is quite possible OBE has some other tools to deal with the debt in the future. I think Peace River assets could have value again just based on the clearwater rights OBE owns. That land is untested on the clear water and a company called Islander Oil and Gas recently drilled some really good Clear water wells...400 plus barrels of oil a day with no real decline at

[kavern23]

I also like the fact our Peace River assets are cold flow. Companies like Athabasca, Meg Energy, any of them needing steam....higher natural gas is an increased cost to get the oil out.  Meg's costs will rise with increased NG prices. A flat oil market and rising NG prices is not ideal for MEG. Athabasca owns their NG Montny rights to counter increased NG prices. IF NG ever hit 6 bucks

[RedDeerMoe42]

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[Tim14235]

Can you confirm our Clearwater assets location?  I recall we were south of where all the action in Clearwater is.  Is there any peers drilling near our Clearwater?   There is a 'thickness' difference between locations in Clearwater so I was waiting to see if there was any real upside or if our clearwater sucks

[Tim14235]

and I agree selling Peace River should be next.  Prices are up big and it is safe to assume that TMX will increase demand and therefore decrease differential.  Closer we get to TMX, we may reach a max valuation for this asset. But you have to balance this against potential for macro drops and declining production. If the asset is highly economic and we have no plans to drill it, then

[kavern23]

The best map I have seen...is click on the link: https://www.perpetualenergyinc.com/en/investor/PerpetualCorporateOverviewJuly19_2021.pdf and then go to slide 12.  Top left part shows OBE, Baytex and Islander land position.  Islander is drilling and Baytex and OBE are west of it. Highwood oil and gas was the company orginally trying to do deal to buy OBE's portion. Highwood never

[Tim14235]

Amazing chart, thanks.  Nice to see our WG asset being shown here paying out in .5 years too