Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

US.

[gordo323]

OBELF closed up 10% today.

[Hendrick3]

No it closed up 10 cents or about 2.5%. Still good but not that good. 

[gordo323]

Sorry wrong simble.

[kavern23]

Market is sure acting like Oil has hit a "top".... Generally when instutions stop buying energy stocks they expect commodity prices to fall. I don't think demand fundamentals are anywhere close to oil prices.  I took a new oil short at 81 earlier this morning.  Need to hedge my portfolio gains somehow. Speculators are going to be f*cked the minute even a hint of

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[Hendrick3]

I think that is a good strategy for hedging because even if oil goes down OBE will probably drift up. It makes a fortune over $70 let alone $80.

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[kavern23]

Of course I am enjoying this Moe. I missed the under 4.65 shares today to buy. Moe if I was a blind energy Bull I wouldnt have made it through 22 years of this.... I would be broke.... Look at the API report...dont think I am wrong Moe..UGLY...this is a house of cards: Latest Release Oct 13, 2021 Actual 5.213M Forecast 0.140M Previous 0.951M

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[SchoolNmoe42]

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[JohnJBond]

Oil is certainly moving into new a price zone its not been in for several years. An interesting aspect of the NY and UK oil price is that its affected by demand/supply - the proxi for which is the change in storage. Most of the World's storage is not reported at all, or is so far behind to make it useless as an investment indicator. Traders have relied (still rely), on the weekly storage

[kavern23]

John...WTI and even the Dow Jones Index moved on the Fed language today....they both were down and flipped.. Speculation is driving the bus right now...so what is the USA government to do.... Lots I betcha they are working on. Because it isnt a supply problem...I don't think they will do a release of more oil....it would be pointless. Well Obama should have passed laws to limit speculation

[JohnJBond]

It was interesting to see such a difference between the API and EIA oil numbers this week - mainly in the change to gasoline and diesel.    The former had large draws and the latter had no change in diesel and a smaller reduction in gasoline. It was also interesting to see this have minimal impact on the WTI price.    That is further confirmation that the WTI price

[kavern23]

If this was demand led rally...OBE and others would be at 52 week highs... But we are not...even Suncor isnt at a 52 week high.... Oil is being bought with reckless speculation as a hedge against inflation like people buy gold. This inflation premium in oil could be 5-10 dollars hence energy stocks are not going wild this week with 81 WTI....the big money knows that oil will drop below 76 the

[kavern23]

I am 100% an OBE bull.  But f*ck man this EIA inventory report was horrible... Groupthink is a dangerous thing. Imports to USA were down 1.4M barrels a day and yet oil inventory still rose by 6m barrels. Refineries are not refining as much gasoline as gas inventories is 223m barrels and a year ago it was 225m.

[Hendrick3]

The weekly inventory reports particularly at this time of year don't tell you much about what the oil price should be. There are refinery shutdowns which cause build up and then draw downs after they are complete. With crude cargoes being very large just the timing of a shipment can skew the numbers. I wouldn't give these weekly reports any of your concern. 

[JohnJBond]

I agree the EIA report was horrible. One wonders if its believable given how different it was from the API numbers. They both can't be right. At the same time, the market ignored it. Your argument regarding oil price is logical.    Time will tell if you are correct. I agree that oil is a good hedge against inflation, but if I was using oil contracts for that purpose I'd

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[kavern23]

Moe....look at the WCS differential....almost everyday in Oct it has risen. If USA was struggling with a shortage doubtful this would be happening. Canadian heavy crude’s discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged wider on Thursday. Western Canada Select heavy blend crude for November delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, last traded at $14.75 per barrel below the U.S. West Texas Intermediate

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[Tim14235]

api is the same survey but it is voluntary. eia is mandatory. api is a sample estimate

[kavern23]

"I agree that oil is a good hedge against inflation, but if I was using oil contracts for that purpose I'd be buying out into the future, not near term.    I'd also be buying gold and silver, neither of which are at their highs." I think they don't buy oil dated out into the future as a hedge against inflation due to the lack of trading liquidity in the

[Kramerkarma]

my opinion on oil prices are more global storage (looks like near 5 yr low) + Global non opec production (Lower than pre covid) + inflation $63 pre covid? (Now add 30%) ....imo it can keep running! Demand is almost there but opec is balancing so .... I'm ok to wait and see

[SchoolNmoe42]

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