Post by
kavern23 on Dec 28, 2021 2:10pm
2022
Great poll Kramer, been thinking about 2022 guidance lately again.
I would choose 29,500-30,500 BOE as guidance for 2022.
If a person was to run a 1000 simulations for potential 2022 production numbers for OBE(ie forecasting process)...and ploted them all on a graph...I think the top of the bell or version of a bell curve would appear...29-500-30,500 BOE. And then adjustements on the outlier tails on both sides
I would say OBE has a 5-7% chance of being under 29,500 Boe and 18-21% chance of being over 30,500 Boe.
Even if I am wrong on my estimatre and OBE has a lower guidance numbers...the tails ends on the outlers should hold...OBE should always have a 18-21% chance plus of beating guidance.
A company like YGR would have not as much of a bell...YGR prob has around a 16-21 percent chance of missing 12,000 BOE in 2022 but on flip side prob has a 40 plus percent chance beating 12,000 BOE guidance.
A company like YGR for sure will have a higher chance then OBE will of beating guidance, especially whenever OBE is over 30,000 BOE but with OBE production is so stable. I do like how stable OBE is and really only has commodity risk.
Seeing how I see YGR having 16-21% risk...I am watching that company very very closly.
Anything ever remotely looks off...getting the f*ck out but I like the story with YGR (doing service internally - vertial integration) and giving it a chance again.
I expect capex to be high for OBE in 2022.
OBE goal is to be a divy payer so I think they will and are considering non-production capex options that either lower long term operating costs or helps the environment.
Example, if spending 10-15M to build NG power plants burning own NG to create own electricity that would lower long terms costs per barrel...OBE should be pursing those options in 2022. Both Prop and Cardium prob have opporortuntiies but I suspect PROP would be considered first if any type of investment happens.
OBE could want to spend capex on more waterflood stuff before converting to divy player..
OBE is likely to spend and keep getting things fixed for the long term while CF is so high.
The delay in guidance could be decisions on this....even if knew getting PROP in 2022....to order stuff takes awhile with supply chain issues...investment decisions take awhile.
OBE could have a base drilling budget with clearwater and pembina drilling able to switch depending on peer drilling results. Crimson capex will always remain constant. And then non production capex.
I hope OBE raises reclaimation spending to the 10-15M range especially when commodity prices are high. The ROI on reclaimation spending is very attractive on alll fronts.
With current commodity prices and the forecasts for WTI and NG in 2022, I would go with plus 155M capex.
So many blind wildcards like clearwater or if OBE is looking at buying some assets that all so hard to predict.
I just like how almost in any scenario....OBE is going to thrive.
Comment by
Kramerkarma on Dec 29, 2021 6:15pm
I would want to see low capex and a purchase of land using debt only ... just because it's a more obvious growth and mature so lower decline keeping capex lower but well see. I was trying to get ppl to think a bit not many other companies even have this as a question.