Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

OBE the only stock moving today in the oil patch

[Mickey2]

everything else is mostly red.

[kavern23]

Sadly it is not surprising..... Look at the latest data...long term this 95 WTI is going to create a crushing amount of oil in the USA..... Operating costs are under 30 bucks a barrel....it will be scream mode.... OPEC can sit and watch but they just losing market share in future. Permian isnt fading at all.... Permian oil output forecast to hit record high in March -EIA  

[kavern23]

Either OPEC or USA needs to release more oil to get WTI under 85...and  save the back half of 2022.... The USA will get to 12M by end of April the longer this continues....when those OPEC african counties get their sh*t together like Nigeria...they will find they are competing to find sales....

[JohnJBond]

The World needs every drop the US can produce. As for higher prices leading to sudden surges that kill the price, remember how long oil was at or above $100 barrel last time.   It crossed $100 around Sept 2010, and was in that range until about June 2014.    That was almost 4 years before the higher price was able to generate enough supply to overwhelm demand

[kavern23]

John...USA shale only started in like early 2011...... USA production grew from like 6 million barrels in early 2012 to close to 10M barrels per day in 2014...then oil prices collasaped for years....4 million barrels of growth was massive. It wont take 4 years as USA is already at 11.6M barrels per day and all the pipelines were built before Covid happened. If covid didnt happen USA expected to

[kavern23]

And what alot of oil analysts likely are not sharing to their readers is Permain wells must be holding a decent decline rate for year 2 and year 3 and year 4.   BNE has trouble growing as thier year 2-4 production on new wells usually is very much lower compared to year 1 average production.  But Permain is different. Without looking at Pemmain wells in detail...very easy to see

[kavern23]

One adjustment I have made is I wasnt really worried about EV's in 2021...but...I think it is worth watching in 2022. Higher income people are the one's buying EV's in USA. Why that is probably going to be a problem is high income people would have put on more miles per year in a gas vechile compared to a poorer people. Take the new Ford Lightening Truck.  Like 100k reservations

[kavern23]

My question to John is this...... If richer countries like Europe one's, Canada, Britian, USA adopt  EV's faster as bigger middle class to afford to buy them..... How can untapped markets of people pooerer countries like Bangalish, Africa countries, Indonseia, Paskistan, Inida afford the buy expensive gas? Like OPEC customer base is gong to shift from the rich societies to the poor

[JohnJBond]

When you add an Electric Vehicle to the road, you don't take a internal combustion engine off the road - you sell it so someone else. Cars last for years - certainly a decade for most.    The internal combustion engine vehicles being sold today will be around for the next decade at least. As for that Electric Truck you are going to buy.    See how fast the

[kavern23]

The problem has been a lack of car/truck manufuctors with an EV offering even in 2021....been mainly Tesla that has any EV product. I like fords strategy much better then what Tesla is doing. Tesla is really pushing auto diving capability of their cars and I don't think consumers really want that. Take that ford EV lightening truck...over 500 horse power and it can do 0-60 faster then a ford

[Kramerkarma]

kavern any updates from petro ninja on wells? For price and oil supply. 1)Opec short again 2)demand higher than expected 3)USA supply less than expected. North Dakota is 55k boe lower than 1 yr ago. Is $95 oil not enough? Permian has a treadmill of 273K bbl /day monthly decline. Also lost 89 ducs (still less rigs than frac crews... again at $95 oil) if they don't add thoes rigs you think 89

[kavern23]

Think the earliest will be this friday for any type of January numbers.... I am scared sh*tless by the permain...truly is that incredible. Production growth is going to be 271,000 barrels from Jan 2022 to end of March 2022....that is not sustainable for OPEC to sit and watch...... Ironic part is in the past Russia was the one that was scared of USA growth.  Be interesting if Putin backs

[masfortuna]

I would agree.  At least 1 year is what I am giving it before I consider any possible supply correction.  I think Kavern is just trying to get cheap shares.  He does flip his ahares of OBE and I suspect that he flipped them at the last high.

[kavern23]

No man...stockhouse does nothing to shareprices. I am not saying I am right...I just saying I have the same "gut feeling" I did in august of 2008 before the financial collapse of Sept 2008 and I didn't listen to my guy that time and I p*ssed away profits back in 2008. I am serious back then I would question with my friends how logical it was for someone working at walmart in

[kavern23]

Impressive day for OBE so far to be holding like this....OBE is very good company, not surprising. Kinda wanna see what trading ranges will be for YGR and OBE in 85-90 oil and then get to work time. YGR is 1.74....at 1.65 would be lovely to get a drink.