Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Kavern Production for January Cardium Players estimates

[kavern23]

I got January estimtes done for OBE, YGR, BNE, Petrus, and IPO.

All of these companies are going to have higher Febuary production numbers due to more well tie ins that have happened. And early Jan had some weather issues.

Obsidian had the best month  of January by far compared to the other companies.
OBE is only company that  grew oil produdction compared to December numbers.

I have pairie storm included for IPO but I would say when factoring that in IPO just basically held flat on oil.  IPO got two new wells going in January...but they only have hours for like half a month.
One of them is really strong like 240 on oil but on production days likey at 480 barrels of oil per day. Other one is ok but much lower then this.  IPO basically held the declines from those Pembina wells with the new wells marching this decline.  Key will be getting wells tied in on time for IPO.  Was a good month for them though.  Execution in getting things done on time is going to be key as they need to keep cycling new wells in as quick as possible.

YGR didnt have the new 6 well pad producing many hours in Jan.  Everything else did as expected. Look fairly close to Dec but are down a few 100 barrels.on NG...guessin 9800 for Jan +_ 200 BOE either way.  I cant tell anything on new 6 well pad.  Hours are all confifential   Need Feb numbers to really know anything.YGR had really strong production on NG side.

BNE had the weakest Jan.compared to its peers because prod dropped versus dec...but things looks fine...Dec was a high month for them to compare too. I have them down 300 barrels on oil versus Dec. NG looked to be down vs Dec by a few 100 boe as well.  BNE needs to be  tieing in new wells or its production drops quite quickly. Feb should be better for them and growth again..

Obsdian looks really good.

Best Natural gas well and 3 crazy good Prop wells.

I have OBE growing by 950 barrels on oil versus Dec....which is really good as lots of OBe new wells didnt have many hours online in Feb.  OBE only going to grow each month going forward.  Backlog of wells plus 4 rigs ripping.

That manville well did 842 BOE a day of just natural gas!!!  Actually growing since the fall.

Bigoray wells looks great still...each are doing 220 barrels  plus of oil per day

3 new seal wells did 360 barrels per day on calendar but by producing day the seals wells are even higher as they didnt work 744 hours but more in 644-665 hours.

I liked OBE jan the most out of any other company.  Decline rates look really good. Key wells are holding.

I think they did around 29400 BOE for Jan +- 300 either way.

Obsidian Well Count	1274
Top Ten Wells	2511
Average Oil Production (Bo)	16473
NG	12008
NGL's	2442
Adjust Factor	-1500
Total Production	29423

I adjustment factor on the NG side mostly and this is for JV stuff we have to give up.  1500 BOE adjustment seems reaonable to me...but this is abit of estimating.

I need to run more months with owning PROP 100% to keep tightening my accuracy on adjustment factor.

If I was going to buy any company based on Jan production it would be Obsdiian. Others are doing okay like IPO but OBE is just doing better.  And OBE has so many more well tie in coming.

OBE still is the place to be.

[JohnJBond]

K, did you find any data on this clearwater 50/50well (with BTE), or is it in confidential status? "In December, the Company participated in the drilling of one (0.5 net) Clearwater well in the Dawson area with an operator with significant experience in the play, accelerating our appraisal activity. This well is now producing heavy oil during its clean up phase."

[kavern23]

It would be under Baytex...goood question I will try hunt and report back.

[kavern23]

John....has OBE said anywhere specifcally it is with BTE?  I assumed it was BTE as well but it might be Woodcote and not bte.

[kavern23]

Yeah it is woodcote....on the OBE presentation slide 15...the land OBE has in and "L" with Woodcote by Dawson...looks like Woodcote drilled on their side and then straight into our land...

[kavern23]

This the well identifer for the clearwater well... 100081507917W500 I mean it was spudded Dec 14th...it couldnt have been on for that long in Jan. The Well did 29 barrels a  oil per day if it produced for 31 days...so can't get much yet other then we know oil and it is likely pretty good.   Producing barrel per day would be higher.

[JohnJBond]

You're getting more data than I am.  I can't see any production data for 100/08-15-079-17W5/00 I just see spud date of Dec 14/21 Rig release date of Dec 23/21 Production date of Dec 24/21 It was on Jan 24/22 that OBE said this well was in its clean up phase. Does your data show any latterals on this well?   I'm just seeing True Vertical depth of 659.72, and total

[perstrudent]

John any data for Baytex HZ S330 Slave 12-34-83-15. This was their clearwater well I believe they drilled in their seal area last october or november I believe...probably some of the best representation of future OBE clearwater prospective.