Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

EIA report

[kavern23]

Wow...it sure seems like something "crooked" is going on....

Net imports to usa were down almost 2.2m barrels a day compared to last week.

Both imports were goosed lower and exports from USA are increased....

Even cushing draining is weird.....

Very possible in order to stop USA from sanctioning Russian oil....some "parties OPEC and Russia" have purposely drained usa oil invesntory levels to make sanctions harder to do in a war.

Strange timing right before an attack...

USA net imports are even less then in 2021 at same time of Covid....shouldnt happen....

[kavern23]

I want you guys to look at this post in 3 months time.... Russian economic planners would have worked for months on how to make it as hard and as painful as possible to sanction russia oil in an invasion of Ukraine.... Number 1 way to protect Russian oil from sanctions is too drain oil inventories as much as possible in G7 countries.... Very odd India and China have full oil storage before this

[JohnJBond]

In my view Biden and Ukraine initiated this conflict to end nord stream 2 Mission accomplished  Now I expect they will get back to talking Putin into withdrawing troops from Ukraine - ie accept the new republics on the east and agree not to allow Ukraine to join nato 

[kavern23]

Trump was more against nord 2 then Biden.... Putin intiated this conflict as he wants to rebuild influence over former soviet union... I expect Ukriane part of Europe Union.

[kavern23]

John...this conflict is likely to cause stagflation in the USA....nightmare for Biden. He wouldnt want this...USA isnt gaining anything. Rising interest rates with high costs this war is costing on food, fertizller...etc... China is the only winner...lower Russian ruble helps China....

[JohnJBond]

Yes stagflation, and all sorts of other economic difficulties likely ahead. When the inflation rate exceeds the interest rate - then the insurnace model doesn't work! Bubbles in real estate, cryto (tulip) currencies, high tech stock etc There are all sorts of problems on the horizon. What does that mean for oil? All that matters for oil is demand vs supply. Demand for oil is inelastic

[kavern23]

Oil demand has been relatively inelastic (in richer societies) in the past but that is going to change as substutions arise.... Anyone in West and Europe that runs taxi fleet, delivery service etc....they are going to be done with oil as soon as they can as people get fed up with the volitility. Alot of people have been on the fence with EV's but this could be straw that broke camels back

[Kramerkarma]

Spot on John. And Kavern surely you see some credibility in the lack of shale growth available. Not none just not like before.

[Kramerkarma]

oil drill rigs & Permian rigs fell and frac spreads fell by 10 some from Permian. Low grading here out to poor basins with DUCs.

[kavern23]

The permain basin gained 1 rig from last week: Permian 310 1 309 99 211 Frac spreads went up overall 8 for USA so I doubt any fell in Permain..... In the last EIA inventory report...lower 48 production increased from 11.1M to 11.2M...Alaska went down by alittle or USA would be at 11.7M barrels a day from 11.6M. USA will grow 100,000

[Kramerkarma]

your correct on Permian +1 but US oil rigs down 3 international rigs down 15 and fracs down 10 I just rechecked.

[kavern23]

Kramer this news just dropped oil from 128 down below 123..... Why do you think USA is struggling to produce oil...covid hurt production but it will sky rocket in the USA....every month it is a gain in production increased to 13m from 12.6 for 2023...mostly due to russia invasion U.S. Shale Producers Are Set to Pick Up the Pace Amid Russian Ban Sheela Tobben 10:39 PM IST, 08 Mar 2022 11:09 PM

[JohnJBond]

There is a lot of uncertainty, all over the place. US production will probably increase given current prices - but by how much, or when is uncertain. US fracers still have the same problem getting sand as they did last month.   They have the same problem getting permits.    They have the same problem getting crews.    They have the same problem with

[kavern23]

Remember the time lag....from about Jan 2022 on that rigs and frac crews have got crazy.... Increasing production by 100k in one month is nowhere bullish..... Runnng on Russian war right now