Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

AECO soaring past $8.00

[fortunefavorsus]

2nd quarter FCF should more than make up for any short comings of 1st.  A little less than 50% gas hedged at 4.65 but who knew gas prices would be up this time of year.  Any guesses on FCF for 2nd if prices hold up around current prices.  I will give a WAG at 110 million.

Market Prices (gasalberta.com)

[TheRexmember]

Cashflow WAG? production up 13% at beginning of Q not sure what exit will be but .. prices up 10% roughly for oil, more for gas thinking 125 million in cashflow. Using simple, aka sloppy, rules of thumb.  should see " net debt " dropping 60-80 million Q on Q bought a little more this morning.   

[fortunefavorsus]

They don't seem to get OBE.  Huge cap ex first quarter and much less later in the year allowing for significant FCF based on more production and higher oil prices.  Probably paid less for those rigs too in 1st.  

[JohnJBond]

Its $4.74 May-Oct 2022 (about 43.4% hedged). Its unfortunate to be paying royalties on $8 when you have locked in $4.74! Its nice to see gas prices north of $8 for the other 56.5%. Average nat gas price for OBE in Q1 was $4.96. Thats about a $100,000 more per day (before royalties), on the unhedged gas.     Or about $9.4 million if to stretched that over a quarter. Their

[fortunefavorsus]

So an excellent 2nd quarter paying off debt and accounts payable.  Just no buyers until shareholders meeting I guess.

[JohnJBond]

Assuming there are no buyers until the AGM is an error. Maybe limited day trader activity I think there are plenty of buyers right now - there has been accumulation all day.    I suspect this accumulation will continue.    Look at the Institutions that are starting to build positions. The idea is to buy based on what the company is doing, not what the share price