Post by
Helloworld on Aug 30, 2024 4:40pm
Buyout Candidate?
OBE has 400 million in value in immediately usable tax credits. If a company could use it that eliminates the debt.
You are then left with a company with a very high oil cut trading at $18,500 a barrel. Seems a bit crazy when other heavy oil / oil sands names are trading at $50k - $80k+ a barrel.
Even a 60% premium on today's closing price would allow assets to be bought at under $30k a barrel (1.1 billion MC)
Market has been punishing OBE due to growth in
an uncertain time which presents a real opportunity.
If you back out $15 million a quarter on finance costs and scale back the Capex to stay flat at $75 oil they would probably FCF close to $50 million a quarter which would be about a 20% FCF clip.
Extremely accreditive to just about anyone.
Comment by
kavern23 on Sep 06, 2024 8:24pm
Shh dude lol...let this stock drop...if this falls even more it eventually becomes time to hammer
Comment by
Helloworld on Sep 07, 2024 10:56am
After the 20% drop after my previous comment is inaccurate. Valued now at $15k/barrel. A 70% premium would mean could buyout at $26k/barrel. They just paid $50k/barrel for Woodcote.