Most companies in the sector put spins about positive EBITDA etc, that is all garbage as far I am concerned. Bottom line they are burning huge amounts of cash and with massive write-downs. They are funding their activities with dilution that is issuing new shares. There is no concern or respect for old shareholders.
The management of most of these companies are mediocre at best. They give a dam of old shareholders they will dilute even when the share price is destroyed. You will find many companies that just diluted when the shares were at rock bottom prices. They do not care if the float (outstanding shares) becomes a billion shares. They will pull a reverse split and reduce the number of shares when they want.
Some will go out and take out other companies at inflated prices, put up a positive spin and then write off goodwill after some time. They show inflated revenues then write-off massive inventory.
Bottom line is that these companies' market caps are not supported by real assets and earnings. Market caps are highly inflated. They will survive as long they are getting fresh capital and if someday some of them cant then they will be out of business. The current market capitalization is based on future expectations and a lot of hype. It is all speculation. All stocks in the sector are in a bubble now. I expect this bubble is going to get much bigger and the hype is going to increase. This is a popular sector and will attract a lot of nave investors. After Covid, this sector had pulled backed to some realistic valuations, but recently it has become inflated again.
Money can be made in a bubble when the speculators are hyped up and see better future prospects for the sector. Sometimes they are right but their timelines are totally off and may require a constant infusion of cash. The market sentiment matters. The purpose of the above paragraphs is that one should be very realistic and should make informed discussions while investing and speculating.
I was looking at the float of OGI which is getting bigger with each dilution. They have a market cap of over $1.1 B. Expect further dilutions as this company is burning cash at a fast rate like others. The all-time high for this stock was below $11 but at that time they had fewer shares outstanding.
OGI has about 232 m shares outstanding not counting the options and warrants outstanding. Now in the period of just one month, the stock has traded 254 m shares at the average price of $ 4.279. This stock trades at Nasdaq too with similar to more than Canadian volumes. So let's double the total volume to 508 m shares traded at C $ 4.279 to keep it simple in one currency. So in one month, the total float has rotated over 2.1 times. That is a massive turnover in a short time and should create higher support for the share price.
With this huge turnover in the stock in principle, the stock should have a decent base at $4.00 area. But this can be misleading. Not all the shareholder have a cost base of $4.00 and above. Some shareholders never sold or bought their shares last month or many in six months. What is happening is that certain millions of shares are exchanges many times a day. Some of the HFT are buying and selling may be the same set of shares on the same day.
When you have crazy 10 times the average volume the swings in the stock can become very violent and extreme. They can take out any support or resistance temporarily for a short time. So be very careful and expect a lot of volatility
Be very realistic, educate yourself, make informed decisions, and have a plan that works for you. Everyone is different and has a different style.
House Positions for C:OGI from 20210112 to 20210212 | 79 CIBC | 94,926,731 | 426,536,415 | 4.493 | 74,669,796 | 311,490,573 | 4.172 | 20,256,935 | -115,045,842 |
| 39 Merrill Lynch | 8,271,219 | 28,643,614 | 3.463 | 7,448,887 | 25,207,519 | 3.384 | 822,332 | -3,436,095 |
| 65 Goldman | 373,042 | 1,813,735 | 4.862 | 247,856 | 1,072,683 | 4.328 | 125,186 | -741,052 |
| 143 Pershing | 345,392 | 1,380,310 | 3.996 | 244,919 | 1,125,981 | 4.597 | 100,473 | -254,329 |
| 35 Friedberg | 75,348 | 441,447 | 5.859 | 11,000 | 22,850 | 2.077 | 64,348 | -418,597 |
| 59 PI | 107,841 | 758,216 | 7.031 | 55,500 | 201,640 | 3.633 | 52,341 | -556,576 |
| 72 Credit Suisse | 155,886 | 387,075 | 2.483 | 114,424 | 291,883 | 2.551 | 41,462 | -95,192 |
| 1 Anonymous | 58,175,823 | 243,429,202 | 4.184 | 58,136,668 | 246,295,764 | 4.236 | 39,155 | 2,866,562 |
| 89 Raymond James | 508,700 | 1,572,211 | 3.091 | 476,235 | 2,465,756 | 5.178 | 32,465 | 893,545 |
| 200 Acumen | 50,000 | 249,160 | 4.983 | 30,000 | 168,582 | 5.619 | 20,000 | -80,578 |
| 84 Ind Trading | 14,800 | 57,189 | 3.864 | 6,100 | 16,281 | 2.669 | 8,700 | -40,908 |
| 212 Virtu | 2,003,982 | 6,977,998 | 3.482 | 1,997,164 | 6,927,486 | 3.469 | 6,818 | -50,512 |
| 222 JP Morgan | 2,463 | 5,763 | 2.34 | 0 | | 2,463 | -5,763 |
| 101 SG Capital | 12 | 34 | 2.833 | 1 | 4 | 4.00 | 11 | -30 |
| 82 Stifel Nicholas | 5,000 | 31,793 | 6.359 | 5,922 | 29,885 | 5.046 | -922 | -1,908 |
| 6 Infor | 0 | | 1,000 | 4,650 | 4.65 | -1,000 | 4,650 |
| 48 Laurentian | 4,600 | 18,722 | 4.07 | 5,800 | 22,755 | 3.923 | -1,200 | 4,033 |
| 68 Leede | 3,500 | 24,390 | 6.969 | 7,000 | 47,280 | 6.754 | -3,500 | 22,890 |
| 3 AltaCorp | 0 | | 7,767 | 30,490 | 3.926 | -7,767 | 30,490 |
| 15 UBS | 8,130 | 50,470 | 6.208 | 18,280 | 68,103 | 3.726 | -10,150 | 17,633 |
| 25 Odlum | 8,000 | 46,410 | 5.801 | 19,190 | 125,546 | 6.542 | -11,190 | 79,136 |
| 56 Edward Jones | 1,936 | 7,941 | 4.102 | 22,723 | 126,656 | 5.574 | -20,787 | 118,715 |
| 83 Mackie | 14,530 | 45,825 | 3.154 | 36,160 | 196,203 | 5.426 | -21,630 | 150,378 |
| 18 Echelon | 20,000 | 98,400 | 4.92 | 50,000 | 394,500 | 7.89 | -30,000 | 296,100 |
| 28 BBS | 125,409 | 612,154 | 4.881 | 159,938 | 908,912 | 5.683 | -34,529 | 296,758 |
| 90 Barclays | 0 | | 38,213 | 171,958 | 4.50 | -38,213 | 171,958 |
| 97 M Partners | 0 | | 39,500 | 284,480 | 7.202 | -39,500 | 284,480 |
| 57 Interactive | 128,018 | 446,841 | 3.49 | 173,462 | 642,064 | 3.701 | -45,444 | 195,223 |
| 76 Industrial Alliance | 10,000 | 72,700 | 7.27 | 55,798 | 288,055 | 5.162 | -45,798 | 215,355 |
| 8 Eight | 0 | | 50,000 | 321,517 | 6.43 | -50,000 | 321,517 |
| 22 Fidelity | 9,280 | 50,830 | 5.477 | 74,904 | 324,052 | 4.326 | -65,624 | 273,222 |
| 74 GMP | 0 | | 74,275 | 337,931 | 4.55 | -74,275 | 337,931 |
| 62 Haywood | 0 | | 90,075 | 422,168 | 4.687 | -90,075 | 422,168 |
| 36 Latimer | 972,027 | 3,892,595 | 4.005 | 1,074,973 | 4,272,833 | 3.975 | -102,946 | 380,238 |
| 70 Manulife | 256,269 | 1,108,501 | 4.326 | 376,022 | 1,785,449 | 4.748 | -119,753 | 676,948 |
| 19 Desjardins | 2,071,486 | 8,802,987 | 4.25 | 2,352,505 | 10,650,564 | 4.527 | -281,019 | 1,847,577 |
| 53 Morgan Stanley | 5,577,116 | 22,024,541 | 3.949 | 5,888,486 | 26,626,439 | 4.522 | -311,370 | 4,601,898 |
| 88 Credential | 1,247,479 | 6,031,362 | 4.835 | 1,612,735 | 7,285,983 | 4.518 | -365,256 | 1,254,621 |
| 124 Questrade | 2,371,181 | 10,990,860 | 4.635 | 2,886,882 | 13,513,243 | 4.681 | -515,701 | 2,522,383 |
| 14 ITG | 230,963 | 819,894 | 3.55 | 947,623 | 4,391,571 | 4.634 | -716,660 | 3,571,677 |
| 13 Instinet | 2,323,658 | 12,369,524 | 5.323 | 3,090,683 | 17,352,104 | 5.614 | -767,025 | 4,982,580 |
| 9 BMO Nesbitt | 7,334,119 | 28,628,121 | 3.903 | 8,229,644 | 33,996,264 | 4.131 | -895,525 | 5,368,143 |
| 33 Canaccord | 2,563,422 | 12,872,040 | 5.021 | 4,408,129 | 21,042,194 | 4.773 | -1,844,707 | 8,170,154 |
| 85 Scotia | 7,147,017 | 29,185,848 | 4.084 | 10,249,420 | 47,108,970 | 4.596 | -3,102,403 | 17,923,122 |
| 2 RBC | 11,868,139 | 48,290,998 | 4.069 | 15,123,321 | 65,322,223 | 4.319 | -3,255,182 | 17,031,225 |
| 80 National Bank | 5,490,366 | 23,013,134 | 4.192 | 8,841,129 | 42,725,879 | 4.833 | -3,350,763 | 19,712,745 |
| 7 TD Sec | 40,044,959 | 168,681,981 | 4.212 | 45,397,734 | 194,363,291 | 4.281 | -5,352,775 | 25,681,310 |
| TOTAL | 254,847,843 | 1,090,471,231 | 4.279 | 254,847,843 | 1,090,471,214 | 4.279 | 0 | -1 |