Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

Single Licensing Deal ?

[Kswdelux]

From the Nov 7th CC,

Our plan is to pursue a single licensing deal for both of our breast cancer, pancreatic cancer programs allows us to minimize our clinical and commercial risk will providing upside throughout from payments, milestones and royalties.

I was under the impression that ONC wanted to do licencing in order to have as many BP involved as possible providing more exposure, more options, etc. Not just one BP. Multiple BP licencing would seemed to open the door to have Pfizer go mBC and ROCHE go Gastro. All good and great exposure leaving all kinds of options with various BP.

But ONC states they are seeking a single licenced BP for both Phase III registration trials.

And, I see ROCHE or Pfizer in a battle for partnership in the event of licencing agreement as they are most in the forefront with ONC to date.

This raises a questions that I do not have the answer to...

Pfizer is not involved with the GOBLET at all to my understanding, and ROCHE is the only BP involved with GOBLET to my understanding. So how does Pfizer jump into and run a Phase III Gastro trial when their drugs have not been used within the Phase II Goblet trail? 

Pfizer as the licence BP partner would have to acquire ROCHE's drugs to be able to move the Phase III Gastro trial forward as the ROCHE drugs are what was used in the Phase I/II Goblet trial.

I supposed Pfizer would then run Phase III Gastro as the Licenced Pelareoprep supplier/ONC partner and work with ROCHE through the trial. In the end, ROCHE would have an approved combination drug therapy for Gastro and I assume share the combination drug therapy patent with ONC, Pfizer and Roche ?

Just seems messy, with too many fingers in the patent pie splitting profits, etc. on the Gastro side, and seems to put ROCHE in a better position for running both trials as the Licencee/Partner, as ROCHE has been involved in both mBC and Gastro trials using ROCHE drugs.

Of course I would prefer a buyout, and ONC will not talk about a buyout until it is formally on the table, if that actually occurs. 

But curious... does this single Licencee partnership agreement for both trtials tip the scales in ROCHE's direction ? IMHO it would seem too...

Thoughts ?

[inthno]

This is a tough one for sure and am guessing it is a strategy which onc has set out with the help of the 2 new board members to help put the most pressure on Roche and Pfizer. IMO only this statement now sets the stage for a buyout rather than a partnership but either would be good and a partnership could still be beneficial to both and the other idication could then be farmed out to the other BP.

[Kswdelux]

I totally agree with you as to a partnership or buyout prior to the release of Bracelet data. With these latest gastro results with more data to come between now and the KOL on Nov 14th, and the fact that Golblet is fully enrolled, and the fact that ONC is talking with the FDA regarding dropping the Goblet trial and moving directly into a Phase II/III gastro pivital registration trial puts a

[Hcallahan44]

KSW...thanks for weighing in....i used to love reading your absurdly high price predictions for a buyout....if there is one....what are you projecting these days?  I added today  65k long and not super strong....

[Kswdelux]

I think Noteable is running $6B to $8B. I think that is a good conservative number these days. My number (my hopes) are $10B to $13B  Call me nuts....lol There is more going on than just mBC and Gastro. Car T  So many other cancers that have generally the same charactoristics that pela can assist. I think that has to come into play. 2 bio-markers so higher efficacy rates that ever

[lonc17]

Fun times for sure.  We are at the end of a 22 year saga.  I cannot imagine either Roche or Pfizer letting go of ONC.  Which means... bidding war.   This could get very interesting real quick.  

[m00nsh0ts]

Notable was running 8B to 15B but is now posting the PWC suite spot of 5B to 15B. So he may have changed his lower range point.

[fox7mf]

IMO, Oncy's stated desire/demand for a single licensed BP is their way of letting any bidder know that they want the simpler out & out buyout. I hope that's the case.

[m00nsh0ts]

Maybe ONCY wants the Pfizer cuffs off.

[westcoast1000]

Thanks to all for smart comments here. KSW asks how it would work if one company bought ONCY but we are also partnering with others in indications not now handled by the new owner. Then I would guess that the winner gets to cooperate and negotiate and help pay for the trials with the combo drugs. Hence a purchase by Pfizer would lead to them partnering through ONCY with Roche. Or vice versa.

[Journeytc]

Im guessing trial partners paper contract terms in advance. Otherwise why commit time and resource if partner can arbitrarily pull the plug.