Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

$Value to Insiders from a Potential Buyout

[Proboscises]

I created an excel spreadsheet that calculates the value of the ONC/Y insiders' current shares and options at any buyout price or any additional ATM shares that I choose to include. The number  of shares and options I got from SEDI and I have already presented these. The average exercise price of the options I estimate after looking a bit more closely at the SEDI data at between $2-$3 per share. If you want to be conservative use a $3 exercise price per share, multiply that by the number of options, and subtract that total from the total value of the shares and options to get the net value. 

The number of fully diluted shares (which includes options) was given as of September 2022 as 64,388,508 shares. It is unknown how many more shares will be added by the ATM prior to a buyout. I can put whatever number I want for fully diluted shares into my spreadsheet. I can also play with whatever number I want for a buyout price. In this example I estimated 5,000,000 more ATM shares (so a total of 69,388,508 shares).  For a buyout price I used $2,000,000 USD, but I've also played with scenarios of $4,000,000 - $8,000,000.

My results for a scenario of a buyout price of $2,000,000 USD, a total of 69,388,508 shares, and no recognition of the options exercise price (you can do that yourself) is as follows:

Gross income (in USD) to insiders from a sale of all their current shares and options at a buyout price of $2,000,000 USD:

MANAGEMENT
Matt Coffey.                       $41,821,000
Kirk Look.                          $24,796,000
Thomas Heineman.           $12,566,000
Andrew de Guttadauro.     $16,529,000
Allison Hagerman.             $14,754,000

BOD
Wayne Pisano.                   $7,879,000
Deborah Brown.                 $3,292,000
Bernd Seizinger.               $10,956,000
Angela Holtham.                 $5,462,000
James Parsons.                  $1,297,000
Johnathan Rigby.                $1,297,000

If you are comfortable with spreadsheets you can make your  own spreadsheet and play with whatever scenarios you want. Or you can take my numbers and multiply by whatever factor you want to compute the gross income at whatever buyout price you choose. 

The point of this is to demonstrate the value of a potential buyout to each insider.  The numbers are big.

[Proboscises]

Sorry, I gave the buyout number in millions, but it should be in billions. I'm doing this in a car from a cell phone, while waiting for my wife. 

[Azzak34]

Appreciate the time and effort this took. We're getting there, each day we nudge closer. Hope the wife didn't keep you waiting too long. 

[megaflop]

One thing for sure, she won't keep him waiting as long as ONC has!

[Azzak34]

Ewww, that was what you wanted to jump in with? That stunk. 

[westcoast1000]

Thanks, Proboscises, I think your calculations assume buy out prices in the billions, not millions. 

[m00nsh0ts]

are you missing three zeros from your buyout prices?

[fox7mf]

I'm hoping outstanding shares aren't at $69m...$64m outstanding at b/o will suffice thx...and whether the b/o price is $2m or $2b usd, both scenarios truly suck IMHO. I know it's just an exercise, but $2b for Onc woefully undervalues the company. 

[Proboscises]

Yes, I mis-typed. I guess I'm not used to dealing with all those zeros. However, the calculated amounts for each insider should be accurate. If you think $4 or $5 billion or whatever is a more accurate buyout price then multiply by 2 or 2.5 or whatever. Subtracting off the option exercise price does not have a big effect.   

[fox7mf]

Well, in any event, thanks for the work you put in here Proboscises...greatly appreciated. We must be in the home stretch now & with the 90 day exclusivity quickly evaporating, a PR could drop any day. GLTA.

[westcoast1000]

I found this summary of insider value from a buyout encouraging in a number of ways. Even with a $2 bil total price, all the management is home free and never has to work again. That means there is no principal/agent problem here, which has been argued on the cursed Yahoo board. It also means they are not forced to hold out for the 5-8 bil that has been discussed here by some of the posters

[Buckhenry]

truly comical to see all u folks go ape sh!t here and let your mind run away. if we are hoping.... lets add a few more zeros... it cant hurt...

[Lesalpes29]

Most of us are probably in the same situation of you Westcoast. For me a real buyout at 2B in the coming weeks is really better then next year at 2.5B! Life is short! GL

[fox7mf]

My only gripe would be the evidence of countless early stage biotechs (ph 1) getting in the vicinity of $4-$5b. Onc may have been available for as little as $2-$2.5b with just the one indication (mBC). A purchase amount should be considerably higher after Goblet...but, I've never been through a biotech buyout, so who knows!?!