Norbord Inc. T.OSB

Q4 2017 earnings

[carlocarli]

OSB will be reporting its Q4 2017 earnings in about three weeks. The consensus forecast is $1.32/share. Does anyone have any thoughts? Does anyone feel that there will be a surprise, one way or the other?
Good luck to all

[DADsaid37]

Q4 should be slightly higher than Q3 2017 based on R/L prices.  Not sure sure what currency your  $ 1.32 concensus is but that must be USD.  I've seen $ 1.73 Cdn concensus and I think Q3 actual was $ 1.74 Cdn.  My guess is $ 1.82 but that depends on how much Christmas downtown was  taken at their mills and all the year end things that go on at big companies.  But

[carlocarli]

You are right, I neglected to specify that the forecast I quoted was in USD (the currency that OSB uses in its financial statements). I hope you are right with your forecast. Good luck to all.

[tiker22]

Looks like market is anticipating good Q4 results. Buying on rumour? Could then sell off if not very positive results. Wonder if hurricanes will positive effect revenue? 

[tiker22]

EPS consensus is about $1.39US. I think it will be higher, guessing $1.42US or more in anticipation of increased revenue based on production ramp up. Q1 of 2018 also looks good due to continued demand from hurricanes and fires in California. OSB prices on the rise. We will see shortly but I'm emboldened by stock price increase of late.   

[tiker22]

OSB smashed previous records in many areas in 2017. The 4th quarter was awesome and my EPS prediction was pretty much bang on ($1.42 US/basic share), about .03 over street consensus.. Unfortunately none of this was reflected in today's stock price due to the total market sell off today in Canada and the US. I am hopeful that this is a blip and SP will recover and go much higher given this

[dosperros]

Hurricanes this year will be a larger impact, all equal.  We are 100,000 hosuing starts higher and have only seen maybe 4 new mills start up (one of which is Norbord).  We also have booming repair and remodelling and Norbord's value-add focus. For context, a house takes 14,000 or so SF of OSB.  So 4 mills at partial capacity (300 MMSF each) for a year would be enough for 85,000